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Penduga Model Arima Untuk Peramalan Harga Tbs Kelapa Sawit Di Propinsi Riau Sigit Sugiarto
SITEKIN: Jurnal Sains, Teknologi dan Industri Vol 15, No 1 (2017): DESEMBER 2017
Publisher : Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/sitekin.v15i1.4287

Abstract

This article discusses forecasting methods using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. This method of forecasting is used to predict the price of Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB) in Riau Province by 2017. Using the R language, this research yields FIVE models: ARIMA (1,1,0), ARIMA (0,1,1 ), ARIMA (2,1,0), ARIMA (1,1,1) and ARIMA (0,1,2) Model Based on the decision criteria selected one of five combinations of the model which has the smallest MSE value, ie: ARIMA ( 0.1,2) , with the best value of MSE 3905 selected by the criterion of the squared value of the mean square error error. Consequently, model (1) is the best model.
PENAKSIR RASIO DAN PENAKSIR REGRESI YANG EFISIEN UNTUK RATA-RATA POPULASI PADA SAMPLING ACAK SEDERHANA MENGGUNAKAN DEVIASI KUARTIL DAN KOEFISIEN SKEWNESS Linda Veronika; Sigit Sugiarto; Rustam Efendi
Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 1, No 2 (2014): Wisuda Oktober 2014
Publisher : Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam

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Abstract

In this article the combination of ratio estimators and  ratio-regression  in  simple random sampling  using  quartile  deviation  and coefficient of skewness are  discussed, which is a review from the  article  Jeelani  et.al.  [International Journal of Modern Mathematical Sciences,  6(3): 174-183]. These  estimators  are biased  estimators and  their  mean square errors are determined. Estimator with the smallest mean square error is the most efficient estimator. A numerical example is given at the end of discussion.
PENAKSIR RASIO REGRESI MENGGUNAKAN KOEFISIEN KURTOSIS DAN KOEFISIEN VARIASI UNTUK RATA-RATA POPULASI Endah Dwi Jayanti; Arisman Adnan; Sigit Sugiarto
Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 2, No 1 (2015): Wisuda Februari 2015
Publisher : Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam

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Abstract

This paper  studies  three regression ratio estimators  for  population mean Y of the variable  Y  using information on two auxiliary variables  X  dan  Z  under simple random sampling without replacements.  This discussion is  a review  from the article of Singh  et al.  [Statistics  in Transition  10(1): 85-100].    All estimators are biased. The efficient estimator is  the  one with the  minimum  Mean Square Error (MSE), determined by comparing each type of the estimators.
KOMBINASI PENAKSIR RASIO-PRODUK EKSPONENSIAL UNTUK RATA-RATA POPULASI MENGGUNAKAN PROPORSI PADA SAMPLING GANDA Nike Syelfina; Arisman Adnan; Sigit Sugiarto
Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 1, No 2 (2014): Wisuda Oktober 2014
Publisher : Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam

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Abstract

The estimators discussed in this paper are the exponential ratio estimator, the  exponential product estimator and the combination of exponential product and exponential ratio estimator on double sampling using proportion which is a review of the article written by Singh et. al. [Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operations Research, 1(2): 18-32]. The three proposed estimators are biased. Hence, their mean square errors (MSE) are evaluated. Furthermore, the MSE are compared to obtain the most efficient one. Combination of exponential product and exponential ratio estimator on double sampling using proportion is the most efficient estimator among the other estimators.
PENAKSIR UNTUK RASIO POPULASI DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN TRANSFORMASI VARIABEL Putri Rizqiyah; Harison '; Sigit Sugiarto
Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 2, No 1 (2015): Wisuda Februari 2015
Publisher : Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam

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Abstract

Estimators discussed in this paper are three estimators for population ratio using variable transformation, i.e estimator of population ratio using dual variable, regression-type estimator of population ratio, and ratio-type estimator of population ratio, which is a review from the article of Onyeka et.al [Global Journal of Science Frontier Research13(2013):57-65]. The three estimators are biased estimators. The most efficient estimator is the one that has the smallest mean square error obtained by comparing the mean square error of each estimator. An example is given at the end of the discussion.
MEAN SQUARE ERROR TERKECIL DARI KOMBINASI PENAKSIR RASIO-PRODUK UNTUK RATA-RATA POPULASI PADA SAMPLING ACAK BERSTRATA Rini Kurniati; Sigit Sugiarto; Rustam Efendi
Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 1, No 1 (2014): Wisuda Februari 2014
Publisher : Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam

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Abstract

This paper discussed about three the ratio-product estimators for mean population in thestratified random sampling. It is combinations of ratio estimator and product estimatorin stratified random sampling. This paper is a review from the paper of Tailor et.al.[Communications of the Korean Statistical Society 18:111-118]. The estimatorsdiscussed are the combination of ratio-product estimator, combination of ratio-productestimator using coefficient of variation and combination of ratio-product estimator usingcoefficient of kurtosis. All of estimators are bias estimator. Then the mean square error(MSE) of each estimator is evaluated. Furthermore, the MSE of each estimator iscompared. This comparison shows that the combination of ratio-product estimator is themost efficient, that is with the smallest MSE.
VARIASI METODE CHEBYSHEV DENGAN ORDE KEKONVERGENAN OPTIMAL UNTUK MENYELESAIKAN PERSAMAAN NONLINEAR Julia Murni; Imran M.; Sigit Sugiarto
Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 1, No 2 (2014): Wisuda Oktober 2014
Publisher : Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam

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Abstract

This article discusses variants of Chebyshev's methods to solve a nonlinear equation. Analytically, it is shown that the methods are of four order. Numerical comparisons show that the proposed methods are better than Newton's method, Chebyshev's method, Chebyshev-Halley's method, and Jarratt's method in performance, in terms of succeeding in obtaining the root.
PENAKSIR UNTUK RASIO POPULASI DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN KOEFISIEN REGRESI DAN DUAL PADA VARIABEL TAMBAHAN Nahriati Ersa; Sigit Sugiarto; Rustam Efendi
Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 2, No 1 (2015): Wisuda Februari 2015
Publisher : Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam

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Abstract

In this article we discuss three estimators for population ratio using the coefficien regression and dual, which is a review from the article of Onyeka et.al [GlobalJournal of Science Frontier Research, 13(2013):57-65]. The three estimators are biased estimators and their mean square errorsare determined. Furthermore, this mean square errorsare compared to mean square error of each estimator.This comparison shows that thetype-product estimator is more efficient than another estimators.
PERBANDINGAN MODEL PEMULUSAN WINTER DENGAN ARMA(p, q) UNTUK PERAMALAN STOK BERAS BULOG PEKANBARU Arif Sanjaya; Muhammad Daniel Hendri Gamal; Sigit Sugiarto
Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 2, No 2 (2015): Wisuda Oktober 2015
Publisher : Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam

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Abstract

This article discusses Winter’s smoothing and ARMA(p, q) model through numerical computation. Both of these models are used to predict the availability of rice stocks at National Logistics Agency or BULOG in Pekanbaru City by considering the seasonal factor from time series span data. Then a comparison iscarried out for both forecasting models to select the right forecasting model using minimum mean square error.
PENAKSIR RASIO REGRESI LINEAR UNTUK RATA-RATA POPULASI MENGGUNAKAN VARIABEL TAMBAHAN, KOEFISIEN VARIASI DAN KOEFISIEN KURTOSIS Malini Anggraeni; Sigit Sugiarto; Rustam Efendi
Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 2, No 1 (2015): Wisuda Februari 2015
Publisher : Jurnal Online Mahasiswa (JOM) Bidang Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam

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Abstract

This paper discusses three ratio  regression linear  estimators for population mean Y using two auxiliary variables X and , Z using the coefficient of variation and coefficient of kurtosis on simple random sampling.  This paper is a review of  the article Singh  et. al [Statistics in Transition  10(1): 85-100]. The three estimators are biased estimators and their  mean square errors  are  determined.  Each  estimator  compared to  the value of the mean square error.  Comparison shows that the estimator with the minimum mean square error is an efficient estimator.
Co-Authors a. totok priyadi Aitiawisima, Rahel Alam, Asmirani Andy S. K. Dahoklory Andy Sunder Keer Dahoklory Angganita Perasoa Anmama, Ronald P. Ansiska, Paisal Arche F. Bonara Arif Sanjaya Arisman Adnan Arnold Ismael Kewilaa Asmirani Alam Bungatang Bungatang Dadiara, Yuliyanti Dahoklory, Andy Sunder Keer Daniel Keipau Dian Rubiana Suherman Dolwoy, Michael R Edy Sony Endah Dwi Jayanti Engrith G Leunupun Fandy Mauday Fransheine Rumtutuly Harison ' Imran M. Ince Wattimury Inggrid Welerubun Inuhan, Michael Ismo Lellola Jean Kelmaskosu Jecklin M. Lainsamputty Johansz, Dovila John N. Lekitoo John Nandito Lekitoo Julia Murni June, Kufla Juwaher Makatita Kamaruddin, Sitti Fatimah Kanety, Dolfinus H Karolina Rupilele Kastera, Maljhon Keriapy, Melty F. Kilikily, Cristianti C Kilikily, Cristianti C. Kilikily, Cristianty C Knyarilay, Julisye F. Kurniati, Ratnah Kwuwulay, Ani Lainsamputty, Jecklin M. Lakuteru, Sem Donaldto Leinussa, Maria Lekidama, Mathias Lekitoo, John Lekitoo, John Nandito Lelloltery, Yakomina Lestari Lestari Lestari Lestari Lestari Lico, Gideon J. Linda Veronika Makay, Daniel Malini Anggraeni Malwewan, Amelia Marthinus, Mersiana Martono Martono Mauday, Fandy Mehmorliay, Bastian Melati I. S. Umarella Micael Ririhena Monjel, Astin Muhammad Daniel Hendri Gamal Nahakleky, Reni Nahriati Ersa Nanulaita, Martina Nike Syelfina Nikolas Ngilamele Nur, Ismail M. NURWAHIDAH NURWAHIDAH Paliaky, Yenliv D. Pooroe, Deby Febiana Porloy, Christi Putri Rizqiyah Rahel Louk Rarutioka, Krismendo Ratu, Rinoly H. Relmasira, Marthina Renny Souhoka Ridolvina Unawekla Rini Kurniati Riza Lupi Ardiati Rode Koupun Romrainy, Salomina Rumtutuly, Fransheine Rupilele, Karolina Rustam Efendi Sairiltiata, Sefanya Sairlouth, Cantika A. Sairtory, Difia Sairtory, Elsi Nonsi Salmon, Nice Saununu, Joy M. Sefanya Sairiltiata Septory, Jekriel Sisilia M. Taihuttu Sitti Fatimah Kamaruddin Solemede, Maikel G. Sony, Edy Souhoka, Renny Sugian Nurwijaya Suherman, Dian Rubiana Sulimaly, Deviana Tetrapoik, Nelcy Teurupun, Silas Tiwery, Dian S Tiwery, Yulina Umarella, Melati I. S. v, Ervina J. Vina Tetiwar Wakole, Dores Waremra, Ransito W. Warsoy, Leonara Wattimury, Ince Wessy, Yeheskel Windya Sairdola