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All Journal JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis Signifikan : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Jurnal Ekonomi Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Journal The Winners Indonesian Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship (IJBE) Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business Jurnal Aplikasi Bisnis dan Manajemen (JABM) E-Journal MIX : Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Jurnal Ekonomi & Kebijakan Publik Jurnal Manajemen Indonesia Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING) Al-Muzara'ah AFEBI Economic and Finance Review JIMFE (Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Fakultas Ekonomi) Jurnal Proaksi International Journal of Zakat (IJAZ) Business Review and Case Studies JEMSI (Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, dan Akuntansi) Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies Journal of Contemporary Administration and Management (ADMAN) JEPI Jurnal Komplikasi Anestesi
Tony Irawan
Department Of Economics, Faculty Of Economics And Management, Bogor Agricultural University
Religion Aerospace Engineering Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology Neuroscience Public Health Social Sciences Other

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INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENT AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE INDONESIAN ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE Irawan, Tony; Hartono, Djoni; Irawan, Ferry; Yusuf, Arief Anshory
Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business Vol 27, No 3 (2012): September
Publisher : Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (328.809 KB)

Abstract

Indonesian government shows their big commitment on the improvement of infrastructure which is reflected in some regulations and policies made. It is supported by many empirical evidences that show the importance of infrastructure improvement on the economic performance. This paper developed a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)model to analyze the impacts of infrastructure on the Indonesian economy by introducing several types of infrastructure and discussing the impacts of it on the poverty level. The results suggest that improvement on any types of infrastructure is expected to increase the economic growth, raise the government revenue, raise the factors’ income and reduce the poverty level. Improvement on the public work of agriculture, land transportation and telecommunication are still being preferable options comparing to others. Interestingly, even though the public work of agriculture is usually located in rural areas, the model suggests that the improvement on this sector will result higher impact on the urban household rather than to the rural household.Keywords: infrastructure, CGE, policy, poverty.
Optimum Portfolio Analysis of Black-Litterman Model in The Indonesian Stock Exchange on Consumer Goods Industrial Sector Pudjiani, Meilina; Syaukat, Yusman; Irawan, Tony
Journal the Winners: Economics, Business, Management, and Information System Journal Vol 21, No 1 (2020): The Winners (In Press)
Publisher : Bina Nusantara University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21512/tw.v21i1.5954

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to identify the allocation of optimum portfolio formation in consumer goods sector at Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2014 to 2018 by using Black-Litterman model. This quantitative research used secondary data on stock prices of the consumer goods sector on the Indonesian Stock Exchange from January 2014 to December 2018 which was obtained from Yahoo Finance and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Four stocks formed the optimum portfolio of consumer goods sector identified by using Black-Litterman model. Those are stocks of PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk, PT Kimia Farma Tbk, PT Indofarma Tbk, PT Indofarma Tbk, and PT HM Sampoerna Tbk. The results show that stock with the biggest proportion was ICBP’s with proportion of 68,5379%. Meanwhile the smallest proportion was INAF’s, which is 3,0277%. The mean return was calculated from this proportion, resulting in 3,678% while the risk value was 1,471%.
Structural Breaks dan Ketidakstabilan Permintaan Uang di Indonesia Deviyantini, Deviyantini; Sugema, Iman; Irawan, Tony
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol 17 No 2 (2017): Januari 2017
Publisher : Department of Economics-FEB UI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (303.746 KB) | DOI: 10.21002/jepi.v17i2.715

Abstract

Structural Breaks and Instability of Money Demand in IndonesiaThis research aims to identify the sources of instability of the money demand function (M1 and M2) due to structural changes that occur as a result of economic shocks. These shocks, are technically shown by the presence of structural breaks in the data and can lead the parameters non-constancy. The instability of the money demand function was analyzed using the Gregory and Hansen test. The source of instability of the money demand was identified using time varying parameter model. This research used quarterly time series data from 1993Q1 to 2013Q4. The result of Gregory and Hansen test indicates there is no long term equilibrium between variables (money demand, income, domestic interest rate, foreign interest rate, exchange rate, and inflation) in the model, neither M1 nor M2 model. On the other word, money demand function is unstable. The source of the instability is exchange rate variable.Keywords: Stability Money Demand; Structural Breaks; Time Varying Parameter ModelAbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi sumber-sumber ketidakstabilan fungsi permintaan uang (M1 dan M2) akibat dari perubahan struktural yang terjadi karena adanya guncangan ekonomi. Guncangan tersebut, yang secara teknis ditunjukkan oleh keberadaan structural breaks di dalam data, dapat menyebabkan parameter menjadi tidak konstan. Ketidakstabilan fungsi permintaan uang dianalisis dengan menggunakan Gregory and Hansen test. Sumber ketidakstabilan dari permintaan uang diidentifikasi dengan menggunakan time varying parameter model. Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series dalam bentuk kuartalan dari 1993Q1 sampai 2013Q4. Hasil Gregory and Hansen test menunjukkan bahwa tidak ada keseimbangan jangka panjang di antara variabel-variabel (permintaan uang, pendapatan, suku bunga domestik, suku bunga luar negeri, nilai tukar, dan inflasi) di dalam model, baik pada model M1 maupun M2. Dengan kata lain, fungsi permintaan uang tidak stabil. Sumber ketidakstabilan tersebut berasal dari variabel nilai tukar.
Pengaruh Liberalisasi Keuangan terhadap Volatilitas Makroekonomi di Kawasan Asia-Pasifik Abdullah, Feriansyah; Achsani, Noer Azam; Irawan, Tony
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol 18 No 2 (2018): Januari 2018
Publisher : Department of Economics-FEB UI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (426.537 KB) | DOI: 10.21002/jepi.v18i2.716

Abstract

The Effect of Financial Liberalization on Macroeconomic Volatility in Asia PacificAbstractThis paper examines the effect of financial liberalization on growth volatility of macroeconomics variable using dynamic panel model for nineteen Asia-Pacific countries for period of 1976–2015. Our results showed that the benefit of financial liberalization in Asia-Pacific region caused by the low volatility of the macroeconomic growth only occur in the group of developed countries, and not occur in the group of developing countries. This proved that the existence of financial liberalization provides no full beneficial effects in Asia-Pacific region.Keywords: Asia-Pacific; Dynamic Panel; Financial Liberalization; Macroeconomic VolatilityAbstrakPaper ini menguji pengaruh liberalisasi keuangan terhadap volatilitas pertumbuhan variabel makroekonomi dengan menggunakan model panel dinamis untuk 19 negara di Kawasan Asia-Pasifik selama periode tahun 1976–2015. Hasil penelitian membuktikan bahwa keuntungan liberalisasi keuangan di Kawasan Asia-Pasifik karena rendahnya volatilitas pertumbuhan variabel makroekonomi hanya terjadi di kelompok negara developed countries, dan tidak terjadi untuk kelompok negara developing countries. Hasil ini membuktikan bahwa adanya liberalisasi keuangan belum memberikan efek yang menguntungkan secara penuh di Kawasan Asia-Pasifik.
Trade Creation dan Trade Diversion Indonesia dengan AANZFTA pada Komoditas Garam Nugraha, Dwi Tjahya; Irawan, Tony; Hakim, Dedi Budiman
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol 20 No 1 (2020): Januari 2020
Publisher : Department of Economics-FEB UI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (299.715 KB) | DOI: 10.21002/jepi.v20i1.874

Abstract

ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA) is a free trade area formed in 2009. One of its implementations is the reduction of import duties on salt commodities in 2011. Its implementations has an impact on trade creation (TC) members and trade diversion (TD) on salt commodities product. The objective of this study is to analyze the occurrence TC and TD on salt commodity. Import demand elasticity and substitution elasticity approach for TC and TD estimation models was developed by the World Bank. The result is no all AANZFTA’s members get profit in the form of TC but just TD with dominated by Australia (99%) and other member (1%). --------------------------------------------- ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA) adalah kawasan perdagangan bebas terbentuk pada tahun 2009. Awal pembentukannya adalah adanya penurunan tarif bea masuk komoditas garam. Kebijakan tersebut berdampak terhadap trade creation (TC) dan trade diversion (TD). Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis terjadinya TC dan TD pada komoditas garam. Pendekatan yang digunakan adalah elastisitas permintaan impor dan elastisitas substitusi untuk estimasi model TC dan TD yang dikembangkan oleh Bank Dunia. Hasil penelitian yang didapat adalah adanya keuntungan berupa TC dan TD yang didominasi oleh Australia (99%) dan anggota lainnya (1%).
STRUCTURAL BREAKS DAN KETIDAKSTABILAN PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA Deviyantini Deviyantini; Iman Sugema; Tony Irawan
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 6 No 2 (2017): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1122.59 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/jekp.6.2.2017.47-60

Abstract

This research aims to identify the sources of instability of the money demand function (M1 and M2) due to structural changes that occur as a result of economic shocks. These shocks are technically shown by the presence of structural breaks in the data and can lead the parameters non-constancy. The instability of the money demand function was analyzed using the Gregory and Hansen test. The source of instability of the money demand was identified using time varying parameter model. This research used quarterly time series data from 1993Q1 to 2013Q4. The results show that the money demand function (M1 dan M2) is not cointegrated (unstable) and the source of the instability is exchange rate variable. Keywords: Stability money demand, Structural breaks, Time varying parameter model
Causality Analysis of Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Indonesia Debby Anggraeni; Tony Irawan
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 7 No 1 (2018): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1348.378 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/jekp.7.1.2018.60-77

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the relationship between PPI inflation and CPI inflation in Indonesia both in general and for each group of commodity, and to identify whether PPI inflation can be a leading indicator for CPI inflation or vice versa. This study employs Granger causality based on VAR model for monthly data series from January 2010 until August 2016. The results show that there are unidirectional relationship between PPI inflation and CPI inflation generally, bidirectional relationship from PPI inflation to CPI inflation for foodstuffs group, unidirectional from CPI inflation to PPI inflation for clothing group, and no causality between PPI inflation and CPI inflation for processed food, beverage, cigarette, and tobacco group.Keywords: Granger causality, producer price index, consumer price index, VAR JEL classification: E31, C22
Identification of Premature Deindustrialization and Its Acceleration in Indonesia (Period 1986-2015) Vina Eka Andriyani; Tony Irawan
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 7 No 1 (2018): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1479.921 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/jekp.7.1.2018.78-101

Abstract

The increase of the manufacturing's share in GDP has reached its peak in the early 2000s while the growth rate of the manufacturing employment is relatively low. Both facts demonstrate that the process of industrialization has slowed down and an indication of deindustrialization in Indonesia. Deindustrialization that occurs in the countries with low GDP per capita is called premature deindustrialization. This study measures the rate of deindustrialization and identification of premature deindustrialization on period 1986- 2015. The result shows that the speed of deindustrialization varies between indicators and between islands. Descriptive analysis showed indication of premature deindustrialization in Indonesia. Keywords: Deindustrialization, Premature deindustrialization, Manufacturing, Indonesia JEL classification: L16, L50, L52, L60, O14, O25
THE CAUSALITY BETWEEN INCOME AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION: A PANEL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH Tony Irawan
Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis Vol. 4 No. 2 (2007): Vol. 4 No. 2 Oktober 2007
Publisher : School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (528.211 KB) | DOI: 10.17358/jma.4.2.81-90

Abstract

Hubungan sebab-akibat antara pemakaian energi dan pemasukan (produk domestik kotor) telah menjadi isu yang sangat penting di bidang ekonomi. Banyak penelitian yang telah dilakukan dan hasilnya beragam dan berlawanan. Dari hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tidak ada hubungan sebab-akibat yang jelas antara kedua variabel tersebut. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan investigasi ulang hubungan sebab-akibat tersebut dengan mengaplikasikan metode panel vector autoregressive kepada data dari enam negara terpadat populasinya di dunia. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga menggunakan impulse response function dan variance decomposition. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa adanya hubungan sebab-akibat tidak langsung dari pemakaian energi ke pemasukan. Goncangan pemakaian energi mempunyai efek yang positif dan dapat menjelaskan kira-kira 18,7 persen varian pemasukan.
KAJIAN PENERAPAN MARKET TIMING DI PASAR MODAL INDONESIA Salman Fajri; Tony Irawan; Trias Andati
Jurnal Manajemen Indonesia Vol 19 No 1 (2019): Jurnal Manajemen Indonesia
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Telkom University.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25124/jmi.v19i1.1983

Abstract

This study is intended to discuss about implementation of market timing as an investment alternative strategic in Indonesian Stock Market. Market timing is procedure for changing portfolio asset allocation to deal with changes in business cycle. The market timing indicator used in this study is interest rate of Bank Indonesia. The active portfolio consists of IHSG and bond for simple rotation strategy. Sector rotation strategy consist of cyclical and non cyclical sector index. The dissecting cycle analyse by two methods, Hamilton Filter and indicator change assumptions. The secondary data used in this study have a span of time from January 2005 – December 2017. The result showed that active strategies produced better performance than passive strategy, and sector rotation were the best performance among other alternative strategies. Optimal performance of simple rotation occurs when change of variable BI rate by ± 25 bps (basis point) and optimal performance of sector rotation occurs when change of variable BI rate by ± 100 bps (basis point). Keywords—Hamilton Filter; Market Timing; Sector Rotation; Simple Rotation. Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membahas tentang penerapan market timing sebagai tindakan strategi investasi aktif di pasar modal Indonesia. Market timing merupakan prosedur perubahan alokasi aset portfolio untuk menghadapi perubahan siklus bisnis di suatu negara. Indikator market timing yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia. Portfolio aktif terdiri dari IHSG dan obligasi untuk strategi aktif rotasi sederhana dan indeks sektor siklikal dan non siklikal untuk rotasi sektoral. Pemilahan siklus dilakukan dengan dua metode yaitu Hamilton Filter dan asumsi perubahan variabel indikator. Seluruh data sekunder yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini memiliki rentang waktu dari Januari 2005-Desember 2017. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa strategi aktif menghasilkan kinerja lebih baik relatif terhadap strategi pasif, dan strategi rotasi sektoral secara keseluruhan lebih baik dibandingkan dengan alternatif strategi lain. Strategi rotasi sederhana optimal pada penggunaan asumsi perubahan variabel ± 25 bps (basis point) dan strategi rotasi sektoral optimal pada penggunaan asumsi perubahan variabel ± 100 bps (basis point). Kata kunci— Hamilton Filter, Market Timing, Rotasi Sederhana, Rotasi Sektoral
Co-Authors Abdullah, Feriansyah Abrar Setiawan Achsani, Noer Azham Adler Haymans Manurung Ahmad Cahyo Nugroho Ahmad Rifai Ajeng Ayu Sabriani Alla Asmara Andri Afrianto Anny Ratnawati Arief Anshory Yusuf Aziz, Lukmanul Hakim Dadang Wahyu Juniarwoko Debby Anggraeni Dedi Budiman Hakim Deviyantini Deviyantini Deviyantini, Deviyantini Dikky Indrawan Djayanti Sari Djoni Hartono Dominicus Savio Priyarsono DS Priyarsono Eka Khaerandy Oktafianto Erliza Noor Faisal Azmi Feriansyah Abdullah Feriansyah, Feriansyah Futu Faturay Garin Pratiwi Solihati Hartoyo Hendri Setiadi Hendro Sasongko Hermanto Siregar HERRY SUHARDIYANTO Iman Sugema Indrawan, Dikky Irfan Syauqi Beik Isro'iyatul Mubarokah Isro’iyatul Mubarokah Jamhari Jamhari Khoirul Marzuki Lukytawati Anggraeni Maemonah, Maemonah Mega Tri Rahmawati Meilina Pudjiani Moch. Hadi Santoso Moch. Hadi Santoso Muhammad Fauzan Fadhlani Muhammad Firdaus Mulya Syafnur Mursalin, Destrianto Noer Azham Achsani Noviyanti, Fuzi Nugraha, Dwi Tjahya Nur Maghfirah Nur Muflihatun Azizah Pudjiani, Meilina Raden Dikky Indrawan Ranti Wiliasih Ray Agung Sucika Pratama Ready Prima Dudesy Reffi Marizka Dewi Risya Maulida Septiana Salman Fajri Salman Fajri Saraswati, Raras Aisyah Sidiq Suryo Nugroho Soni Rita Purba Sri Retno Wahyu Nugraheni Sudadi Tamami, Ahmad Jihan Tiara Kusumadewi Trias Andati Trias Andati Trias Andati Vina Eka Andriyani Wanda Kharisa Ristyanti Wita Juwita Ermawati Yusman Syaukat