Climate Change

Paleoclimatic records have shown evidence of glacial/interglacial asymmetric cycles over the last millions years of the Plio/Pleistocene. In Milankovitch’s theory, these ice ages may be related to the incoming solar radiation (insolation), induced by a varying Sun-Earth astronomical configuration. This astronomical forcing is often said to be a ‘pacemaker’ of ice ages (Hays et al. 1976); the underlying idea is that ice ages are a manifestation of dynamics internal to the climate system, but their timing is set by the astronomical forcing. This interpretation may be linked to the universal concept of synchronization in nonlinear sciences and in dynamical system theory.

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Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215

Today's graduate and postgraduate education in the field of Earth System and Environmental Science is a highly interdisciplinary and inter-institutional challenge. The integration of observations, palaeoclimate data, and climate modelling requires networks and collaborations of experts and specialists in order to better understand natural climate variations over a broad range of timescales and disciplines, and to cope with the challenges of recent climate change. The existing research infrastructure at the Alfred-Wegener- ...

Climate change, population growth, increasing water demand, have had impacts on freshwater resources in many countries within the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) region where increasing water demand outstrips available water resources. Many IGAD countries experience either water stress (less than 1,700 m3 per capita per annum) or water scarcity (less than 1,000 m3 per capita per annum) or both. Moreover, food insecurity and impacts of climate change remains endemic throughout much of Africa, with climatic factors such as rainfall variability being a major cause. In 2006, 25 African countries required food aid, largely due to recurring drought. Poverty and food insecurity are linked to low agricultural productivity aggravated by climate change and variability and water shortages. Essential activities including water resources management and agriculture are affected by recurrent climate change and variability. Variations in climatic patterns, which occur naturally fr...

Without question, humanity is at a crossroad amidst rapid environmental changes. Some of these changes are natural, such as climate variability, but human-induced alterations on Earth have accelerated in recent decades, reaching a scale and intensity like never before. Virtually no place on Earth remains untouched by human activity. With a growing human population expected to exceed 10 billion people in coming decades (United Nations 2010), human interactions with Earth will likely continue to accelerate. A formal proposal to name a new timeframe within the Geological Time Scale, the ''Anthropocene'' , is in development for consideration by the International Commission on Stratigraphy . This proposed geologic timeframe recognizes the undeniable role of human activity in affecting Earth's functioning, and is now widely debated among academic scientists, practitioners, and the public alike (e.g., Balter 2013). In light of increasing recognition of human interactions with Earth, this special feature explores new scientific questions and frameworks for tackling research frontiers for understanding human-landscape systems. These questions and frameworks derive from multidisciplinary perspectives, developing from discussions among 50 physical,

The unique ecosystems and biodiversity associated with mid-ocean ridge (MOR) hydrothermal vent systems contrast sharply with surrounding deep-sea habitats, however both may be increasingly threatened by anthropogenic activity (e.g., mining activities at massive sulphide deposits). Climate change can alter the deep-sea through increased bottom temperatures, loss of oxygen, and modifications to deep water circulation. Despite the potential of these profound impacts, the mechanisms enabling these systems and their ecosystems to persist, function and respond to oceanic, crustal, and anthropogenic forces remain poorly understood. This is due primarily to technological challenges and difficulties in accessing, observing and monitoring the deep-sea. In this context, the development of deep-sea observatories in the 2000s focused on understanding the coupling between sub-surface flow and oceanic and crustal conditions, and how they influence biological processes. Deep-sea observatories provi...

Global warming has become a notable trend especially since an abrupt climate change in 1976. Response of the East China Sea (ECS) to the global warming trend, however, is not well understood because of sparse long-term observation. In this paper, hydrographic observation data of 1957-1996 are collected and reviewed to study climatological variability in northern ECS. Significant warming trends are found in both summer and winter. In summer, the average SST is about 0.46°C higher during the period of 1977-1996 than that of 1957-1976, and the Taiwan Warm Current Water (TWCW) was strengthened. In winter, despite of the cooling effect in the coastal areas adjacent to the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Estuary (CRE), the average SST increase was about 0.53°C during the same period. The causes of this SST warming up in summer are different from in winter. The warming trend and intensification of the TWCW in summer were primarily influenced by the strengthening of the Kuroshio transport, while the warming in winter was mainly induced by the variability of the climate system.

In this paper, we used observation data of rainfall from 1981 to 2016 and average temperature to calculate drought indices: J, Ped, and SPI for the center region of Vietnam. The first advantage of three indicators is that they were based on meteorological variables such as rainfall and average temperature data. The second advantage is that it is possible to estimate the value each month, contributing to the examination of the drought details in a specific period. These indicators easily classify the degree of drought from no drought, normal to moderate and extreme drought. In this study, it is shown that when determined according to the J index, drought is more clearly delineated according to the level of drought. In addition, the J index reflects a significant level of seasonal drought. The result of drought frequency map shows that the extreme drought occurs in the two provinces of Hoi Xuan in Thanh Hoa and Quy Nhon in Binh Dinh. Through the J index, the study also statistically d...

Our planet is changing, and one of the most pressing challenges facing the scientific community revolves around understanding how ecological communities respond to global changes. From coastal to deep-sea ecosystems, ecologists are exploring new areas of research to find model organisms that help predict the future of life on our planet. Among the different categories of organisms, meiofauna offer several advantages for the study of marine benthic ecosystems. This paper reviews the advances in the study of meiofauna with regard to climate change and anthropogenic impacts. Four taxonomic groups are valuable for predicting global changes: foraminifers (especially calcareous forms), nematodes, copepods and ostracods. Environmental variables are fundamental in the interpretation of meiofaunal patterns and multistressor experiments are more informative than single stressor ones, revealing complex ecological and biological interactions. Global change has a general negative effect on meiofauna, with important consequences on benthic food webs. However, some meiofaunal species can be favoured by the extreme conditions induced by global change, as they can exhibit remarkable physiological adaptations. This review highlights the need to incorporate studies on taxonomy,

Populations of the copepod species Calanus finmarchicus often dominate the springtime biomass and secondary production of shelf ecosystems throughout the North Atlantic Ocean. Recently, it has been hypothesised that interannual to interdecadal fluctuations observed in such populations are driven primarily by climate-associated changes in ocean circulation. Here, we compare evidence from the North Sea and Gulf of Maine/Western Scotian Shelf (GoM/WSS) linking fluctuations in C. finmarchicus abundance to changes in ocean circulation associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A particularly striking contrast emerges from this Trans-Atlantic comparison: whereas the North Sea C. finmarchicus population exhibits a negative correlation with the NAO index, the GoM/WSS population exhibits a more complex, positive association with the index. The physical processes underlying these contrasting population responses are discussed in the context of regional-to basin-scale circulation changes associated with the NAO.

Despite being relatively rare, Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, also known as Medicanes, induce significant impacts on coastal Mediterranean areas. Under climate change, it is possible that these effects will increase in frequency and severity. Currently, there is only a broad understanding of the types and mechanisms of these impacts. This work studied Medicane Ianos (September 2020) and its effects on the Ionian Islands, in Greece, by developing a database of distinct impact elements based on field surveys and public records. Through this archive, the study explored the range of Ianos’ impacts to develop a systematic categorization. Results showed different types of effects induced on the natural and the built environment that can be grouped into 3 categories and 39 sub-categories in inland and coastal areas, indicating an extensive diversity of impacts, ranging from flooding and geomorphic effects to damages in various facilities, vehicles and infrastructure. The systematic ...

The study examined the perception of farmers on the change in climate condition on cassava production in Ido Local Government area of Oyo State. Data were collected through the use of structured questionnaire which were administered to 76 respondents. Descriptive and multiple regression analysis were used to analyse the result of this study. Results showed that 85.8% of the respondents are male and 14.7% were female, 29.2% were between 31-40years, 70.7% of the respondents received information on climate change through neighbours and friends, 100% of the respondents relied on rainfall as a source of water to the farm, 92% made use of manual planting method, while 61.3% of the respondents perceived that climate change does not have absolute effect on cassava production, also majority 50.7% agreed that extension worker do not enhance productivity, major sources of climate change awareness are through radio and television. Regression result showed that labour used was negative and statistically significant at 1%, extension agents visit has a negative coefficient and significant at 5% while source of farm land and farm size has a positive relationship to cassava output in the study. Therefore, extension agent visit or contact should be improved in order to enhance or assist the farmer on how to militate against climatic change and also to help in the adoption of new technology by the farmers in the study area. Contribution/Originality: This study documents that the cassava farmers labour used could be capital intensive since majority of them used hired labour also decision to have a regular or consistence contact with extension agent could enhance the farmers to acquire basic training, awareness and knowledge intervention in climate change in the study.

This study explores the integration of ecosystem services and climate change adaptation in development plans for coastal wetlands in Bangladesh. A new response framework for adaptation is proposed, based on an empirical analysis and consultations with stakeholders, using a modified version of the DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) framework. The framework is tested in the Narail district of Bangladesh, where temperature has increased by about 1 °C in the summer in combination with an increase in rainfall of 0.70 mm day -1 yr -1 in the last decade. Calibrated model (MAGICC/SENGEN) projections forecast, on average, a temperature increase of up to 5 °C and an increase in rainfall of 25 % by the end of this century. Water diversion in the upstream regions of the Ganges River delta contributes to increase water scarcity in the dry season. Enhanced rainfall and the immense pressure of water discharges from upstream water sources are increasing the risk of floods and river erosion in the dry season. An increase in the water holding capacity of rivers, wetlands and canals by dredging is urgently required. The empirical model of this study is intended to support adaptation planning and monitoring in Bangladesh and can be used in other data-poor areas which will suffer from climate change.

Como a lo largo y ancho del canal están situadas alrededor de 26 estaciones meteorogicas, las cuales difieren no solo en asmu b ient1m6 o tambien en su latitud y longitud, utilizamos varios métodos de agrupación jerárquica con el fin de obtener grupos o zonas donde las estaciones tienen patrones de precipitación similar. De los métodos utilizados con el denominado average, obtuvimos cinco zonas o grupos. De las zonas formadas escogimos las estaciones con mayor número de registros anuales, para continuar con el estudio de la tendencia a largo plazo donde utilizamos el modelo de regresión lineal y el procedimiento de Lowes. Con los resultados de la regresión lineal aceptamos la hipótesis de que las tendencias generales a disminuir de la precipitación observadas por el Dr. Windsor no han cambiado. Sobre el efecto del fenómeno ENOS (El Niño~ Oscilación del Sur) en la precipitación hemos obtenido que según la magnitud con que se presente el ENOS, éste causa una reducción en la precipitac...

Continued warming of oceans has caused global shifts in marine species distributions. This can result in changes in the spatial distribution of landings and have distributional impacts on marine resource-dependent communities. We evaluated the spatial dynamics of American lobster (Homarus americanus) landings in coastal Maine, which supports one of the most valuable U.S. fisheries. We coupled a bioclimate envelope model and a generalized additive model to project spatial dynamics of lobster landings under possible climate scenarios. This coupled model was then used to forecast future lobster habitat suitability based on IPCC RCP climate scenarios and predict distributions of fishery landings from this projected lobster habitat suitability. The historical spatial distribution of fishery landings shows the highest proportional landings in Maine’s Southern (southwest) regions. The current distribution of landings shows higher proportional landings in Downeast (northeast) regions with t...

Throughout time, climate changes have caused substantial rearrangements of habitats which have alternately promoted and disfavoured different types of taxa. At first glance, the mountain hare (Lepus timidus) shows the typical hallmarks of a cold-adapted species that has retreated to refugia since the onset of the current Holocene interglacial. In contrary to expectations, however, the species has a high contemporary genetic diversity with no clear differentiation between geographically isolated populations. In order to clarify the phylogeographic history of European mountain hares, we here analysed ancient DNA from the glacial populations that inhabited the previous midlatitude European tundra region. Our results reveal that the Ice Age hares had similar levels of genetic variation and lack of geographic structure as observed today, and the ancient samples were intermingled with modern individuals throughout the reconstructed evolutionary tree. This suggest a temporal genetic continuity in Europe, where the mountain hares were able to keep pace with the rapid changes at the last glacial/interglacial transition, and successfully track their shifting habitat to northern and alpine regions. Further, the temporal demographic analyses showed that the species' population size in Europe appear to have been tightly linked with palaeoclimatic fluctuations, with increases and declines occurring during periods of global cooling and warming, respectively. Taken together, our results suggest that neither habitat shifts nor demographic fluctuations have had any substantial impact on the genetic diversity of European mountain hares. This remarkable resilience, which contrasts to a majority of previously investigated cold-adapted species, is likely due to its generalist nature which makes it less vulnerable to environmental changes.

How species respond to an increased availability of habitat, for example at the end of the last glaciation, has been well established. In contrast, little is known about the opposite process, when the amount of habitat decreases. The hypothesis of habitat tracking predicts that species should be able to track both increases and decreases in habitat availability. The alternative hypothesis is that populations outside refugia become extinct during periods of unsuitable climate. To test these hypotheses, we used ancient DNA techniques to examine genetic variation in the arctic fox ( Alopex lagopus ) through an expansion/contraction cycle. The results show that the arctic fox in midlatitude Europe became extinct at the end of the Pleistocene and did not track the habitat when it shifted to the north. Instead, a high genetic similarity between the extant populations in Scandinavia and Siberia suggests an eastern origin for the Scandinavian population at the end of the last glaciation. Th...

Despite decades of research, the roles of climate and humans in driving the dramatic extinctions of large-bodied mammals during the Late Quaternary period remain contentious. Here we use ancient DNA, species distribution models and the human fossil record to elucidate how climate and humans shaped the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth, wild horse, reindeer, bison and musk ox. We show that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years. However, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment. Although climate change alone can explain the extinction of some species, such as Eurasian musk ox and woolly rhinoceros, a combination of climatic and anthropogenic effects appears to be responsible for the extinction of others, including Eurasian steppe bison and wild horse. We find no genetic signature or any distinctive range dynamics distinguishing extinct from survivi...

Mangroves are amongst the richest ecosystems in the world providing valuable goods and services to millions of people while enhancing the resilience of coastal communities against climate change induced hazards, especially island nations. However, these mangroves are severely affected by many anthropogenic activities. Therefore, understanding the spatial variability of mangroves in island nations is highly essential in the events of ongoing climatic change. Thus, this study assessed the use of remote sensing techniques and GIS to map and monitor mangrove cover change at selected sites, namely Le Morne and Ferney, on the tropical island of Mauritius. Freely available 2013 SPOT-5 and 2023 Sentinel 2A images were retrieved and processed using ArcGIS Pro tools and SNAP; mangroves were mapped based on Google Earth Pro historical imagery and ground truthing at the respective sites. Following the application of selected vegetation indices, GLCM and PCA analysis, mosaicked images were classified using the Random Trees algorithm. Kappa values of all the classified images were in the 90 s; Le Morne showed a significant increase in mangrove cover over the decadal scale with main class change from mudflat to mangroves. This study demonstrates how geo-spatial tools are crucial for monitoring mangroves as they provide spatially explicit and time sensitive information. Decision makers, researchers, and relevant stakeholders can utilize this data to bolster tailored mitigation and adaptation strategies at specific sites, thereby enhancing resilience to climate change.

Genomic surveillance has emerged as a cornerstone of global pandemic preparedness, offering real-time insight into pathogen evolution, transmission dynamics, and the emergence of variants of concern, and although it was instrumental during the COVID-19 pandemic in shaping public health interventions, from vaccine design to border control strategies, its global implementation remains highly uneven due to disparities in sequencing capacity, data sharing infrastructures, and governance models, and this article presents original comparative analysis from the United Kingdom, South Africa, India, and Brazil, combining statistical evidence from 2019 to 2025 with the authors' conceptual model for integrating genomic intelligence into public health systems, and concludes with policy recommendations for embedding genomic platforms into a predictive, equity-driven health security architecture.

Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are 1 needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation 2 e orts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared 3 Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to 4 describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, 5 spanning a wide range of plausible futures in terms of 6 challenges to mitigation and adaptation 1 . Thus far the key 7 drivers of the uncertainty in emissions projections have not 8 been robustly disentangled. Here we assess the sensitivities 9 of future CO 2 emissions to key drivers characterizing the SSPs. 10 We use six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models with 11 di erent structural characteristics, and study the impact of 12 five families of parameters, related to population, income, 13 energy e ciency, fossil fuel availability, and low-carbon energy 14 technology development. A recently developed sensitivity 15 analysis algorithm 2 allows us to parsimoniously compute both 16 the direct and interaction e ects of each of these drivers 17 on cumulative emissions. The study reveals that the SSP 18 assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth are 19 the most important determinants of future CO 2 emissions 20 from energy combustion, both with and without a climate 21 policy. Interaction terms between parameters are shown to be 22 important determinants of the total sensitivities. 23 Counterfactual or baseline scenarios of future greenhouse gas 24 emissions play a crucial role in the scientific analysis of climate 25 change, but they also increasingly matter in the political debate. 26 Long-term projections of socioeconomic and emission scenarios are 27 needed to be able to assess future climate change, and its physical 28 and economic impacts. Emission reduction policies, including 29 several of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are 30 expressed as reductions relative to emissions projections. Moreover, 31 baseline emissions are one of the most important drivers of 32 mitigation costs 3-5 : the higher the expectations of future emissions 33 in the absence of climate policy, the greater the mitigation effort for 34 a given climate target, which translates into higher policy costs and 35 technological transformation requirements. Q.1 36 Although long-term emissions projections are needed for 37 decision-making, there is large uncertainty in their estimates. 38 Several emission scenarios have been generated by the integrated 39 assessment model (IAM) research community over the years.

Sustainable development in developing countries— particularly energy security and diversification—will require substantial investment in energy infrastructure, including nuclear power. Development financing approaches that take these needs into account can facilitate atomic projects. Negative impacts on health, safety, the environment, and the social fabric must be avoided or minimised to ensure broad public acceptance. These wider considerations should be incorporated into planning, development, and financing. During the 1990s, nuclear power was subjected to an intense post-Fukushima moratorium, which practically ceased development for over a generation. Climate change, however, has led to a global rethink of nuclear power, and there is growing recognition that it plays a role within a low-carbon scenario. Financing strategies that incorporate these factors, address risk, and secure other multi-level socio-economic and environmental concerns can help establish the necessary projects.
Support and regulatory incentives for nuclear project promoters will thus require a nuclear project assessment. Nuclear energy can play a prominent role in sustainable development. Hence, environmental considerations are already contained in all the multilateral and bilateral development financing initiatives. Key socio-economic issues that need attention include whether project capitals exceed expected social benefits by the time of commissioning, and whether possible development-related external costs exceed expected project development finance. Public acceptance, however, is treated as an internalised factor affecting project implementation, thereby influencing the solutions to other typical cost-benefit applications.

Climate-driven heat extremes are escalating in frequency and severity across Australia, exposing urban populations to severe health, infrastructure and livelihood risks. This paper presents the Community Resilience Assessment Framework (CRAF) for Heat, a participatory, indicator-based tool designed to map vulnerabilities and build adaptive capacity across five interconnected dimensions: Social, Economic, Institutional, Infrastructural, and Environmental. CRAF bridges global commitments with local action by translating resilience theory into fieldready practice. It engages communities through surveys, focus groups and mapping exercises; scores local capacities; and identifies priority actions that are measurable and locally owned. Case studies (Byron Bay; Kangaroo Valley; Barcelona's RESCCUE lessons) demonstrate that when communities lead, and institutions support, heat risks are significantly reduced through targeted interventions such as cooling networks, urban greening, and community-led early warnings. Practical constraints-data gaps, resource limitations and short political cycles-are acknowledged. Still, the framework highlights opportunities for integration: mainstreaming 1/12 CRAF in planning, utilising digital tools to address data gaps, and investing in local facilitator training. The paper concludes with actionable recommendations for policymakers, humanitarian organisations, communities and global agencies to adopt CRAF as a standard practice for heat resilience. In short: CRAF turns reactive responses into proactive resilience-enabling communities to prepare, adapt and thrive in an increasingly hot world.

Land conflicts are a pervasive and longstanding issue in Africa, with significant implications for peace and development. Land conflicts are disputes or struggles over land ownership, use, and control between individuals, communities, or groups. These conflicts can arise due to various factors, including historical injustices, unequal access to land, conflicting land use practices, population growth, urbanisation, and environmental degradation. This chapter examines the relationship between land conflicts and development in Africa, focusing on the implications for peacebuilding and sustainable development. The chapter argues that land conflicts are a major obstacle to achieving sustainable development in Africa and that a comprehensive approach is necessary to address the root causes of these conflicts. Drawing on case studies from different African Security-Development Nexus in Africa countries, the chapter analyses the drivers and consequences of land conflicts and their impact on sustainable development. The chapter also examines the role of land governance, institutional capacity, and stakeholder engagement in addressing land conflicts and promoting sustainable development. The chapter also identifies gaps in existing policy frameworks for addressing land conflicts and offers recommendations for a more comprehensive approach to peacebuilding and development in Africa. The chapter argues that addressing land conflicts requires a comprehensive approach that prioritises conflict prevention, resolution, and transformation and integrates social, economic, and environmental considerations into development planning.

Southern Africa is becoming more prone to multiple climate induced disasters. Reoccurring droughts, heatwaves, and floods triggered by cyclones have affected countries like Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. The impact of climate induced disasters, especially in urban areas, is detrimental and results in loss of life, social disruption, and economic hardships. Despite this realisation, mainstreaming innovative strategies to curb climate-induced disasters in development plans across Southern Africa has yet to catch up. This chapter discusses the importance of holistic planning and adaptive approaches in improving responses to climate-induced disasters, facilitating regional integration in Southern Africa and addressing the security and development nexus. The chapter reveals that climate change has increased the frequency and severity of regional disasters, making adopting strategies to mitigate the negative impacts imperative. Holistic planning and adaptive approaches recognise the interconnectedness of social, economic, and environmental systems and seek to address their vulnerabilities in a coordinated and integrated manner. This approach requires stakeholder collaboration, including
communities, government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and academia. Adaptive techniques can help build resilience to climate-induced disasters by incorporating local knowledge and understanding of the region’s complexities.
The chapter highlights the need for continued efforts to build capacity and enhance coordination to effectively implement holistic planning and adaptive approaches in Southern Africa. The chapter also demonstrates how holistic planning and
adaptive approaches mitigate the adverse effects of climateinduced disasters through collaborative, cross-border efforts that enhance regional stability and sustainable development.

The congeneric lagomorphs Lepus timidus and L. europaeus share allopatric distributions in many areas of Europe characterised by competitive exclusion and hybridisation. We investigated prospects for these species under climate change in northern England uplands. We created ensemble models predicting niche realisation for these species, influenced by abiotic and biotic factors, estimating niche overlap in geo-environmental space. The two species occupy distinctly different niches, influenced more by vegetation preferences than climatic differences. The current climate niche for L. timidus featured higher elevations with cooler temperatures and 168 km 2 range extent. Its current habitat niche scale was larger at 269 km 2 , comprised entirely of upland dwarf shrubs: heather, cotton grass, moorland grasses. By contrast, the current climate niche predicted L. europaeus occupying lowland areas with a milder climate and range extent of 252 km 2 . Its current habitat niche was also greater, 401 km 2 , being mostly improved grassland. Competition was presently limited. The current niche predictions showed very little geographic overlap between the species. Niche overlap measured by Schoener Index was low: current climate niche 0.16; current habitat niche 0.07. The future climate niches for 2050 (IPCC RCP2.6), predicted L. timidus range contracting to 19 km 2 , on hilltops and L. europaeus range expanding to 765 km 2 . Consequently L. timidus range would be wholly within the L. europaeus range. In many contact zones throughout Europe, L. europaeus outcompetes L. timidus; however, in the Peak District their distributions are largely distinct. Future replacement of L. timidus by L. europaeus may be engendered by dietary convergence, should a warmer climate cause a transition of upland dwarf shrub vegetation to grasses.

Many of the world’s most biodiverse regions are found in the poorest and second most populous continent of Africa; a continent facing exceptional challenges. Africa is projected to quadruple its population by 2100 and experience increasingly severe climate change and environmental conflict—all of which will ravage biodiversity. Here we assess conservation threats facing Africa and consider how these threats will be affected by human population growth, economic expansion, and climate change. We then evaluate the current capacity and infrastructure available to conserve the continent’s biodiversity. We consider four key questions essential for the future of African conservation: (1) how to build societal support for conservation efforts within Africa; (2) how to build Africa’s education, research, and management capacity; (3) how to finance conservation efforts; and (4) is conservation through development the appropriate approach for Africa? While the challenges are great, ways forwar...

This study estimates the possible effects of change in climatic factors on the production of major crops in Maharashtra, India. Daily precipitation, and minimum and maximum temperature simulated by a statistically downscaled MPI-ESM-MR model in NEX-GDDP archive have been used in the study. Under RCP4.5, the analysis suggests a significant reduction in the production of three major crops, viz. sugarcane, cotton and rice. This decline is prominent in central and central-east Maharashtra. These findings imply the need to improve and develop new seed varieties that can withstand drastic changes in climate and also give high yield to combat food security of an increasing population.

To simulate and quantify the impacts of climate change on phytoplankton dynamics and oxygen budget, a model-based approach is chosen. The 1D hydraulic model HYDRAX is coupled to the water quality model QSim (Quality Simulation). The coupled models are applied to the German section of the Elbe River and its estuary. A long-term run (1998-2010) has been performed to represent the phytoplankton dynamics and the oxygen concentrations for the reference state. The impacts of altered river discharge and air temperature on the water quality have been calculated by a model-based sensitivity analysis. A range of feasible projections of river discharge and air temperature for near (years 2021-2050) and far future (years 2071-2100) has been related to the results of the sensitivity analysis. A decrease in river discharge enhances oxygen deficits in the Elbe Estuary, while an increase in air temperature has a less pronounced and partly reverse effect.

To simulate and quantify the impacts of climate change on phytoplankton dynamics and oxygen budget, a model-based approach is chosen. The 1D hydraulic model HYDRAX is coupled to the water quality model QSim (Quality Simulation). The coupled models are applied to the German section of the Elbe River and its estuary. A long-term run (1998-2010) has been performed to represent the phytoplankton dynamics and the oxygen concentrations for the reference state. The impacts of altered river discharge and air temperature on the water quality have been calculated by a model-based sensitivity analysis. A range of feasible projections of river discharge and air temperature for near (years 2021-2050) and far future (years 2071-2100) has been related to the results of the sensitivity analysis. A decrease in river discharge enhances oxygen deficits in the Elbe Estuary, while an increase in air temperature has a less pronounced and partly reverse effect.

The anthropogenic activities if not sensibly managed put enormous pressure on water resources of any country. Water quality of Kabul River has severely been polluted by rapid urbanization and industrialization. The sub lethal organic pollution is caused by discharge of effluents and other wastes into the river. The effluents from multiple leather processing units, and various other industries along with human feces and livestock manure are polluting the river ecology at an alarming rate. Climate is further impacting the quality of river and diminutive work has been done on climate change impacts on water quality. Integrated efforts are required to improve the water quality to reduce the morbidity and mortality rate in Pakistan and Afghanistan. In this review, water quality situation of Kabul River in Pakistan and Afghanistan along with potential impacts on health, agriculture and aquatic life under the changing climate scenario are presented. Water quality indices and modelling approaches for different parameters are suggested under the changing climate scenario which is expected to increase in the region to find the fate and transport of pollutants in the Kabul Rivers basin. Finally, recommendations were made to improve water quality of Kabul River and to decrease its adverse impacts.

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The purpose of this paper is to provide an outline of environmental justice (EJ) issues of the CPP, specifically with respect to energy efficiency. It is one of a complement of papers sponsored by the Milano School of International Sustainability at the New School that are intended to provide an EJ review of the CPP as a foundation for understanding the opportunities and challenges for integrating equity and justice in climate policy. The catalyst for this set of papers exemplifies one of the problematic issues of climate policy in the U.S. as it has developed over the last several years. While various policy mechanisms have been extensively analyzed in terms of economic efficiency, flexibility and costs of compliance, these stand in stark contrast to only a handful of research efforts that focus on equity impacts of domestic climate mitigation policy. Our goal here is to provide a summary of the major justice/equity issues associated with the CPP specifically, and mainstream climat...

Lack of tree fecundity data across climatic gradients precludes the analysis of how seed supply contributes to global variation in forest regeneration and biotic interactions responsible for biodiversity. A global synthesis of raw seedproduction data shows a 250‐fold increase in seed abundance from cold‐dry to warm‐wet climates, driven primarily by a 100‐fold increase in seed production for a given tree size. The modest (threefold) increase in forest productivity across the same climate gradient cannot explain the magnitudes of these trends. The increase in seeds per tree can arise from adaptive evolution driven by intense species interactions or from the direct effects of a warm, moist climate on tree fecundity. Either way, the massive differences in seed supply ramify through food webs potentially explaining a disproportionate role for species interactions in the wet tropics.

One of the most serious challenges facing biodiversity conservation is associated with the efficiency of protected areas for conserving biodiversity under future climate change. To address it, conservationists recommend shifting conservation planning from just focusing on protecting animal populations and their present habitat to including areas of high habitat heterogeneity. It is now well documented that range shifts of many species are occurring along altitudinal gradients. Thus, species in reserves extending over larger altitudinal gradients would have more opportunities for shifting their range toward higher altitudes. In this study, we evaluated the network of protected areas (PAs) in central Iran for their altitudinal heterogeneity. We then used a comparison index to quantify representativeness level of each altitudinal zone within the PAs. To detect if altitudinal heterogeneity may contribute in vulnerability of PAs to climate change, a climate change vulnerability assessment was performed using climate change velocity index. Our results demonstrated that the overall altitudinal heterogeneity within the PAs in central Iran is low. This was mainly attributed to the disproportionate size of the sites regarding topographic position. Among the altitudinal zones, only those at higher altitudes were well represented by the network suggesting a bias in the selection of protected sites toward higher altitudes. Altitudinal heterogeneity was found as a significant factor influencing vulnerability of the Iranian PAs to future climate change. In this regard, the sites most at risk were those distributed in east and across more topographically homogeneous landscapes. Thus, they are more urgently in need of taking actions for ameliorating the negative impacts of climate change. We suggest applying these assessments to other PAs to more completely plan for the efficiency of the Iranian PAs to future climate change.

Understanding popular attitudes to climate change can be important in developing effective climate adaptation responses. However, in the Pacific region, which is at the forefront of impacts of a changing climate, little attention has been given to popular perceptions of climate change. This paper presents the findings of a climate change module in the first Pacific Attitudes Survey (PAS), conducted in Samoa from December 2020 to January 2021. Drawing on a nationally representative sample of Samoans of voting age (n = 1319), the PAS gauges the views of ordinary Samoans towards climate change, including perceptions of the urgency of climate change action, perceptions of the effects of climate change in Samoa, and of individual or institutional capacity to act on climate change. Findings reveal that while most respondents believe that climate change was an urgent problem that needs to be addressed, a significant minority thought it will “never be necessary” to address climate change. T...

Health effects from climate change are an international concern with urban areas at particular risk due to urban heat island effects. The burden of disease on vulnerable populations in non-climate-controlled settings has not been well studied. This study compared neonatal morbidity in a non-air-conditioned hospital during the 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad to morbidity in the prior and subsequent years. The outcome of interest was neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions for heat. During the months of April, May, and June of 2010, 24 NICU admissions were for heat versus 8 and 4 in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Both the effect of moving the maternity ward and the effect of high temperatures were statistically significant, controlling for each other. Above 42 degrees Celsius, each daily maximum temperature increase of a degree was associated with 43% increase in heat-related admissions (95% CI 9.2–88%). Lower floor location of the maternity ward within hospital which occurred after ...

Methane (CH 4 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) mixing ratios were measured at an air quality monitoring station near the Mt. Wilson (MW) Observatory in southern California starting in the spring of 2007. Diurnal variation and mixing ratio correlation (R 2 ¼ 0.81) were observed. The correlation results observed agree with previous aircraft measurements collected over the greater Los Angeles (LA) metropolitan area. The consistent agreement between CH 4 and CO indicates these gases are well-mixed before reaching the sampling site and the emission source contributions of both compounds are reasonably constant. Since CH 4 and CO are considered non-reactive on the time scale of dispersion within the LA urban area and their emission sources are likely to be similarly distributed (e.g., associated with human activities) they are subject to similar scales of atmospheric transport and dilution. This behavior allows the relationship of CH 4 and CO to be applied for estimation of CH 4 emissions using well-documented CO emissions. Applying this relationship a ''top-down'' CH 4 inventory was calculated for LA County based on the measurements observed at MW and compared with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) ''bottom-up'' CH 4 emissions inventory based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommended methodologies. The ''top-down'' CH 4 emissions inventory is approximately onethird greater than CARB's ''bottom-up'' inventory for LA County. Considering the uncertainties in both methodologies, the different CH 4 emissions inventory approaches are in good agreement, although some under and/or uninventoried CH 4 sources may exist.

Over the last decade, a growing body of academic literature has reflected on how and under which conditions experiments in global climate governance lead to broader changes in rules, norms, and practices helping to meet the challenge of climate change. Drawing on the assumptions of the scholarship on experimentalist governance architectures, this article analyzes the effectiveness of the Covenant of Mayors (CoM) as a comprehensive governance framework that enables the development and coordination of local policies for sustainable energy and climate through a range of joint instruments for recursive goal setting, monitoring, and benchmarking. Our findings illustrate the CoM’s significant potential in terms of both general political uptake and policy output, which could make of this program, if appropriately fine-tuned, a successful governance experiment contributing to building a more effective global climate regime.

Protected area networks help species respond to climate warming. However, the contribution of a site's environmental and conservation‐relevant characteristics to these responses is not well understood. We investigated how composition of nonbreeding waterbird communities (97 species) in the European Union Natura 2000 (N2K) network (3018 sites) changed in response to increases in temperature over 25 years in 26 European countries. We measured community reshuffling based on abundance time series collected under the International Waterbird Census relative to N2K sites’ conservation targets, funding, designation period, and management plan status. Waterbird community composition in sites explicitly designated to protect them and with management plans changed more quickly in response to climate warming than in other N2K sites. Temporal community changes were not affected by the designation period despite greater exposure to temperature increase inside late‐designated N2K sites. Sites ...