Business Cycle Analysis

Antes de tudo quero agradecer a Deus por todas as realizações, pela fé e coragem concedidas para que eu chegasse até aqui. Agradeço aos meus pais, Edinalva e Sebastião, pelo apoio incondicional em todas as etapas da minha vida pessoal e profissional. A educação que me deram e por não medirem esforços para realizar os meus sonhos. Agradeço à minha irmã Daniele pelo apoio e insistência para que eu concluísse o curso, principalmente me acordando todos os sábados pela manhã para que eu não perdesse as aulas. Agradeço à minha família de forma geral, tios, primos, avós, padrinhos e madrinha que mantiveram meu sonho vivo. Um agradecimento especial aos irmãos Jacobianos (Davi, Denis, Emerson, Fernando, Luis e Paulo) pela amizade exemplar, pelas discussões e inspiração a cada encontro. Aos meus amigos do BBC por estarem sempre próximos mesmo distantes. Aos colegas de mestrado, em especial ao Fabio Durço pela enorme ajuda prestada. Ao Banco Itaú pelo patrocínio e aos amigos que lá estavam (Daiane Zuanetti, Ricardo Raposo e Eduardo Prado) por todo o incentivo e compreensão das minhas ausências. À Serasa Experian, na figura do Júlio Guedes, pelo apoio e fornecimento dos dados utilizados nesse trabalho. Aos meus primeiros gestores, José Pena Garcia e Marcelo Cypriano, por despertarem em mim o interesse pela Ciência Econômica. Ao meu mentor, Professor Alexandre de Oliveira, que me recebeu com o coração aberto como orientando. Pela simpatia, paciência e valiosos ensinamentos durante os últimos meses. Aos membros da banca examinadora, Professor Luiz Paulo Fávero e Professor Afonso de Campos Pinto, pelas valiosas contribuições. E por fim um agradecimento mais que especial à minha esposa Nádia. Pelo seu incentivo, amor infinito, paciência, carinho e apoio incondicional mesmo quando minha ausência machucava. O presente trabalho visa propor uma metodologia para Teste de Estresse e, consequentemente, cálculo do colchão adicional de capital em risco de crédito, conforme exigência do Comitê de Supervisão Bancária. A metodologia consiste em utilizar informações macroeconômicas para determinar o comportamento da taxa de inadimplência. Dessa forma, podemos simular possíveis cenários econômicos e, com isso, a taxa de inadimplência associada a esse cenário. Para cada cenário econômico é obtida uma taxa. Cada taxa de inadimplência fornece uma curva de perdas. Simulando diversos cenários econômicos foi possível obter diversas curvas de perda e, com elas, a probabilidade de ocorrência da perda esperada e inesperada. A metodologia foi aplicada a uma carteira de crédito pessoal para pessoa física. Os resultados se mostraram bastantes eficientes para determinar a probabilidade de ocorrência do Capital Alocado. Como consequência do teste, dado um nível de confiança, foi possível determinar qual deveria ser o Capital Alocado para fazer frente às perdas acima da perda inesperada. Palavras-Chave: teste de estresse, alocação de capital, risco de crédito, capital econômico, colchão de capital, cenários macroeconômicos.

Much attention has been paid to the tendency, identified by a number of prior studies, for an inversion of the yield curve to have reliably preceded recessions in the United States since the mid-twentieth century. This thesis focusses on the comparatively under-explored question of whether a predictive relationship between the yield curve and economic growth also existed in Britain between the years of 1800 and 1913. First, a contextualising historical overview is provided of the relevant developments in British financial institutions. This overview aims to identify which interest rates could be taken as representative of the yield curve in that period, how best to divide the timeframe into sub-periods between which results can be compared, and whether any institutional developments are likely to have affected the expected relationship. Evidence is then presented which suggests that the yield curve was not as consistent in its tendency to invert only prior to recessions in nineteenth century Britain as it was in the late twentieth century United States. However, there does seem to have been a positive association between the slope of the yield curve and future economic growth, and a tendency for the yield curve to have been flatter or more inverted prior to recessions than at other times. Investigation into the causes of this predictive relationship finds limited empirical support for the view that the expectations hypothesis of the term structure accounts for the course of long-term interest rates in nineteenth century Britain. Instead, a historical and theoretical case is made that efforts by the Bank of England to raise short-term interest rates in response to the inflation and outflows of reserves which tended to accompany the peak of the business cycle represent a neglected cause of the predictive relationship between the yield curve and economic growth in nineteenth century Britain.

Bu çalışmanın amacı öğretmenlerin eğitimde bilgi teknolojileri kullanımı özyeterliliklerini ölçmeye yönelik ölçek geliştirmektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda veriler, İstanbul'da 11 farklı özel eğitim kurumunda görev yapan 97 sınıf öğretmeninden toplanmıştır. Ölçeğin geçerlilik çalışmaları kapsamında, faktör analizi, alt ölçekler arasında ilişki analizi ve madde ayırt edicilik çözümlemeleri yapılmıştır. Güvenilirlik çalışmaları kapsamında ise ölçeğin ve alt ölçeklerin iç tutarlılık katsayıları (Cronbach) hesaplanmıştır. Geçerlilik ve güvenilirlik çalışmaları sonucunda, 34 maddeden ve 4 alt ölçekten oluşan bir eğitimde bilgi teknolojileri kullanımı öz-yeterlilikleri ölçeği geliştirilmiştir. Ölçeğe, öğretmenler üzerinde geliştirildiği için Eğitimde Bilgi Teknolojileri Kullanımı Öz-yeterlilikleri Öğretmen Değerlendirme Formu (EBTKÖ-ÖDF) adı verilmiştir. Ölçeğin alt boyutları da, temel beceriler öz-yeterliliği, teknoloji tabanlı eğitsel etkinlikler düzenleme öz-yeterliliği, hesap tablosuna dayalı sınıf yönetimi öz-yeterliliği, sistem bilgisi öz-yeterliliği olarak isimlendirilmiştir. EBTKÖ-ÖDF, özellikle sınıf öğretmenleri ile yapılacak çalışmalarda kullanılabilecek bir eğitimde bilgi teknolojileri kullanımı öz yeterlilik ölçeğidir.

We document the stylized facts relating to the contemporary business cycle in eleven oil-producing economies that account for over 65% of global oil production using a set of macroeconomic aggregates covering the period 1981 to 2021. In the context of Nigeria, a vector autoregression analysis is used to measure a one standard deviation oil price shock on time series such as trade balance, real GDP, inter alia. Our study is unique in that we compared four different detrending techniques, including Hodrick-Prescott (HP), Baxter-King, Christiano-Fitzgerald, and Butterworth filters. This is a departure from the conventional method of relying on the HP filter, which has been known to have limitations, particularly in the context of oil-producing economies. Our findings indicate that the selected oil-producing economies with countercyclical inflation patterns suggest that supply shocks drive the business cycles. Conversely, the oil-producing economies with inflation in sync (procyclical) with the business cycle suggest that demand shocks may be the primary driver of business cycle variations. Additionally, our study shows that oil price innovations lead to higher inflation in Nigeria. Keywords Oil-producing economies • Business cycle • Detrending techniques • Oil price shock • Vector autoregressive models (VAR) • Nigeria JEL Classification E26 • E32 • E60 • E62 * Chigozie Chukwu

Long waves of roughly fifty years in economic and social life hav e intrigued many scholars because they offer an alternative perspectiv e from which to view history and the present situation -an alternativ e to either static or linear projections of the future . Past empirica l studies of long waves have agreed on the dating of long wave s historically but not on the scope of those waves in terms of variables encompassed, relevant time-periods, or causal mechanisms (see review in Goldstein, 1988 : ch . 3) . I have sought to advance the empirical evidence relevant to long waves by sorting and testing conflictin g hypotheses in the long-wave debate against about fifty historica l time-series . Based on the most salient lagge d correlations among variables found in my empirical analysis, I adduced a set of causal dynamics among variables that could accoun t for the sequence of phenomena making up the long wave -as bes t that sequence could be inferred from spotty empirical data . The adduced theory is a tentative one, with many remaining loose ends and anomalies . But it is better-grounded empirically than past longwave theories . My theory of long waves centres on the relationship between war and economic growth in the world system . Periods of severe war follow phases of robust economic growth and lead to phases o f stagnant growth . The empirical evidence that war plays a central rol e in long waves is quite strong . Long waves in prices can he explaine d largely by the inflationary effects of recurrent wars . Economic innovations, capital investment, and real wages also play reinforcing role s in generating long waves, in my view -and all are also affected b y

This study investigates the effects of exchange rate volatility on trade in 39 selected SSA countries for the period 1995 to 2012. Export and import models were estimated using panel data econometric technique. Three measures of volatility are used. These are standard deviation, GARCH and HP-Filter. The results suggest that the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade is dependent of the type of volatility measure used. This reflects the importance of not solely relying on a unique measure of volatility. The results revealed that exchange rate volatility (measured with standard deviation and HP filter) depresses exports, suggesting that SSA exporters are susceptible to reduce their export activities when exchange rates become volatile. However, the fact that the degree of the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade is relatively weak, suggest that should SSA’s policy makers decide to pursue a policy intended to reduce exchange rate volatility in order to boost trade, it might...

Innovation has long been recognized as a cornerstone of economic progress, yet its meaning, drivers, and mechanisms remain the subject of continuous debate. From Adam Smith’s early reflections on the forces of economic growth to the contemporary insights of Philippe Aghion, Richard Nelson and Edmund Phelps, scholars have sought to explain how new ideas emerge, diffuse, and transform societies. At the centre of this intellectual tradition stands Joseph Schumpeter, whose theory of economic development framed innovation not as an incremental improvement within an existing equilibrium, but as a disruptive, endogenous process that reshapes the very structure of the economy.

Schumpeter’s seminal contribution was to define economic development as the result of “new combinations” — novel goods, methods of production, markets, sources of supply, or industrial organizations — introduced by entrepreneurs and made possible through the creation of credit. This “trinomial” of innovation, entrepreneurship, and finance reframed the understanding of competition, replacing the static notion of price rivalry with a dynamic process of creative destruction. In this vision, competition is the struggle of the new against the established, a force that simultaneously dismantles outdated structures and lays the foundation for future growth.

While the Schumpeterian framework remains highly influential, the contemporary global economy presents new challenges and opportunities that call for a broader perspective. Modern innovation ecosystems extend far beyond the traditional bank–entrepreneur dyad, encompassing networks of venture capitalists, institutional investors, research foundations, and public policy interventions. Moreover, the role of governance, institutional quality, and strategic policymaking has become increasingly central in determining whether entrepreneurial energy and financial resources translate into transformative outcomes.

This paper emerges from the practical policy work of the Center for Market Education across several Asian economies, where the interplay between innovation, institutions, and development is not merely theoretical but deeply consequential. The present paper also serves as a theoretical introduction to our innovation policy case studies presented in previous works on Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as in forthcoming studies on India and Bangladesh. This paper is also the theoretical foundation for the quantitative analyses of our proposed pro-innovation policies, as presented in Desfiandi and Banjaransari (forthcoming).

Building on Schumpeter’s trinomial, we propose an expanded framework — the PPP model: Products, Processes, and Policies. The first two dimensions align with Schumpeter’s original categories of new combinations, while the third explicitly acknowledges the pivotal role of policy. In our view, policies can act either as catalysts that enable innovation or as innovations in their own right. Yet, crucially, no policy can replace the market’s role as the ultimate arbiter of success.

By revisiting Schumpeter’s insights through the lens of contemporary innovation ecosystems and our PPP approach, this paper seeks to serve as theoretical introduction to our different papers where we bridge classical theory and current policy debates. In doing so, it underscores that while entrepreneurship and finance remain indispensable drivers of creative destruction, the institutional and policy environment can decisively shape whether investments yield mere activity or genuine innovation.

Hybrid project approaches that integrate both predictive and agile methods demand successful cross-functional teamwork to deliver successful project outcomes. The research explores how business analysis standards such as the BABOK Guide and the PMI Guide to Business Analysis help improve team collaboration in hybrid project environments. The systematic literature review in the study examines the role BA standards play in supporting stakeholder alignment and shared understanding while bridging communication gaps between technical and non-technical team members. The research indicates that BABOK enhances stakeholders' ability to collaborate while the PMI Guide offers a strategic approach to integrate business analysis with overall project objectives. Business Analysis standards improve project results and teamwork effectiveness even though challenges like resistance to change and tool adaptability remain in agile environments. The study delivers practical recommendations for organizations aiming to boost team coordination and communication in hybrid project environments by utilizing structured business analysis methods.

Uno de los temas más debatidos en la economía española es el de su productividad. Mientras en la época expansiva se observó un comportamiento negativo de esta variable, en los últimos años de fuerte crisis económicofinanciera su evolución ha sido mucho más positiva, al contrario de lo observado en otros países de nuestro entorno. Por esta razón, el presente trabajo trata de analizar el efecto del ciclo económico sobre nuestra productividad desde los años 80s hasta la presente crisis, usando datos de la Contabilidad Nacional Trimestral (INE) y The Conference Board, prestando particular atención en la peculiar estructura sectorial de nuestra economía.

In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) 2007/2008 the sales of Road to Serfdom quadrupled, a clear indication of renewed public interest in the views of (neo-) Austrian economists on macro-economic crises, especially financial crises. It is also true that several economists associated with the Austrian school, or those using neo-Austrian insights, correctly predicted the U.S. housing bubble and the subsequent GFC, apparently, a clear vindication of (neo-) Austrian cycle theory . More surprising is that even relatively fierce opponents of neo-Austrian macro-theory have meanwhile begun to accept some Austrian insights. We thus ought to ask, what are the basic tenets of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) and how did it enable some economists to correctly predict the U.S. subprime crisis and its aftermath? In contrast, it is also true that mainstream macro-economists, although struggling heavily to come up with a suitable theoretical explanation of the GFC, neither accept the neo-Austrian explanation of crises, nor its policy implications. Therefore, we also need to ask why mainstream economists dismiss ABCT. Is it the alleged neo-Austrian bias towards the supremacy of an unfettered market economy which is rejected by the mainstream, or is it rather the lack of correspondence between ABCT and the stylized facts of business cycles, such as the positive correlation between consumption and investment? We also need to ascertain to what extent the basic Mises-Hayek cycle theory can be applied to an explanation of the U.S. subprime crisis and the GFC? For example, the neo-Austrian economist Salerno (2012: p. 41) has stated that the unprecedented monetary inventions by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the enormous government deficits run by U.S. administrations since the Great Recession (GR) must at some point *We are grateful to an anonymous referee for very helpful comments on to improve an earlier version of this paper in style and substance.

In an increasingly volatile and interconnected global economy, organizations face growing pressure to enhance the accuracy and responsiveness of their strategic decision-making. This paper explores how quantum computing (QC) can be integrated with Real Business Cycle (RBC) theory to optimize economic modeling and business planning. RBC theory explains macroeconomic fluctuations as rational responses to productivity shocks, yet its traditional computational methods struggle with complexity and uncertainty. QC, leveraging principles like superposition and entanglement, offers exponential gains in processing power, enabling faster, more precise simulations for forecasting, risk assessment, and optimization tasks. Through a review of industry applications in finance, logistics, and retail, and a hypothetical scenario comparing classical and quantum analysis, the study demonstrates QC's potential to revolutionize scenario planning and risk management. The research also addresses key technical and ethical barriers, including scalability, cost, data privacy, and algorithmic bias, while highlighting the strategic implications for business leaders in a quantum-augmented economy. Ultimately, the paper calls for interdisciplinary collaboration and responsible investment to ensure that quantum technologies are harnessed for inclusive and forward-looking economic resilience.

This study examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock price indices of four prominent OPEC oil-exporting members. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and regularized linear regression (RLR) are employed to address uncertainties arising from different estimation models and variable selection. Jointness is utilized to determine the nature of relationships among variable pairs. The case study spans macroeconomic variables and stock prices from 1996 to 2018. BMA findings reveal a strong positive association between stock price indices and both consumer price index (CPI) and broad money growth in each analyzed OPEC country. Additionally, the study suggests a weak negative correlation between OPEC oil prices and the stock price index. RLR results align with BMA analysis, offering insights valuable for policymakers and international wealth managers.

Nowadays urban Quebeckers are known to be a "society of tenants." This sociological characteristic does not originate in the 20th century. As early as the first half of the 18th century, tenants became the majority (60%) in the city of Québec. Today this ratio is 70%. Then and up until recently, people moved on 1 May.
Three words sum up the 18th-century urban society: mobility, competition and impoverishment. This is what stands out in the demographic, economic
and material analysis of various socioprofessional groups that composed this pre-industrial town.

Lately, an alternative approach has been put forward by Sharon Harrison and Mark Weder, who suggest that shocks to expectations and self-fulfilling beliefs may have played an important role in causing the Great Depression: see Harrison and Weder, "Sunspot Forces." 2 Prescott, "Theory." 3 Cole and Ohanian, "Great Depression." 4 Basu and Fernald, "Aggregate," p. 963. 5 Basu, Fernald, and Kimball, "Technology." Their result has been found using alternative methods as well and seems to represent a growing consensus, see e.g., Francis and Ramey, "Measures," or Fève and Guay, "Identification."

We introduce some elements of Prospect Theory into a general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition in the good market and real wage rigidities due to (right to manage or efficient) wage bargaining, or to efficiency wages. We show that, under these types of labor market frictions, an increase in workers' loss aversion: (i) reduces the equilibrium wage and in this way increases potential output; (ii) induces workers to work and consume less and in this way decreases potential output. If the former effect is greater (smaller) than the latter one, loss aversion increases (decreases) potential output. We also show that, under all the types of labor market frictions we consider, if loss aversion reduces equilibrium output, it also enhances the plausibility of nominal price rigidities.

It is challenging attempt on taboo type definition on business cycle; it is recurrent but not periodical.I have challenged it is periodical using Gregorian and eastern sexagenary calendars ,and comparing NASA and NBER historical data went beyond it.

A decadência do comércio atlântico, base da prosperidade da colónia de Cabo Verde no século XV, criou uma situação de permanente crise de moeda, que se prolongou até ao começo do século XX. Só a criação das bases de um sistema monetário permitiu, a partir da década de 1940, suprir a carência de moeda e mesmo uma relativa expansão durante os anos 60/70. O conhecimento dos determinantes mais importantes dessa expansão ajuda-nos a compreender o seu significado, do ponto de vista da análise da monetarização da sociedade cabo-verdiana. Assim, recorrendo à função meio de circulação, pudemos observar que a expansão monetária dos anos 60 esteve associada, simultaneamente, a um alargamento do espaço monetário (suportado pela emigração e pela intervenção do Estado) e a um ligeiro aprofundamento do nível da monetarização nas áreas anteriormente mercantilizadas.

It is about a taboo on business cycle definition made in 1946 Burns&Mitchell that business cycle is recurrent but not periodical.I challenged this  definition and showed that it has a high probability to be periodical using “eastern” economist’s approach to reveal it.

Küreselleşmenin bir sonucu olarak toplumda ve eğitim anlayışlarında hızlı değişimler yaşanmaktadır. Bu değişimler ülkelerin eğitim programlarına sadece akademik bilgiyi değil aynı zamanda öğrencilerin 21. yüzyılda karşılaşabilecekleri zorluklarla başa çıkabilmeleri için gerekli olan tutumları, davranışları, değerleri, becerileri ve yetkinlikleri de dahil etmesine neden olmuştur. Bu araştırmanın amacı PISA 2015 sonuçlarına göre en başarılı olan on ülkenin eğitim programlarına dahil ettiği becerileri belirlemektir. Araştırmada nitel araştırma yöntemlerinden doküman analizi kullanılmıştır. Veriler ülkelerin ilkokul eğitim programlarında yer alan temel beceriler ve genel eğitim amaçları ile ilgili bilgiler ülkelerin eğitim programları ve eğitim programları hakkındaki sistemleştirilmiş veriler -Dünya Eğitim Verileri Yedinci edisyonu gibi (World Data on Education 7th Edition 2010/2011)-kullanılarak elde edilmiştir. Elde edilen verilerin analizinde betimsel analiz yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Araştırmanın sonucunda ülkelerin 21. yüzyıl becerilerini çeşitli düzeylerde eğitim programlarına dahil ettiği görülmüştür. Ülkelerin eğitim programlarında en fazla yer alan beceriler iletişim, küresel farkındalık/vatandaşlık, öz yönetim/öz farkındalık, sosyal farkındalık vatandaşlık/demokratik okuryazarlık'tır. Ülkelerin eğitim programlarında en az yer alan beceriler ise aritmetik ve estetik/duyuşsal becerilerdir.

Kuresellesmenin bir sonucu olarak toplumda ve egitim anlayislarinda hizli degisimler yasanmaktadir. Bu degisimler ulkelerin egitim programlarina sadece akademik bilgiyi degil ayni zamanda ogrencilerin 21. yuzyilda karsilasabilecekleri zorluklarla basa cikabilmeleri icin gerekli olan tutumlari, davranislari, degerleri, becerileri ve yetkinlikleri de dahil etmesine neden olmustur. Bu arastirmanin amaci PISA 2015 sonuclarina gore en basarili olan on ulkenin egitim programlarina dahil ettigi becerileri belirlemektir. Arastirmada nitel arastirma yontemlerinden dokuman analizi kullanilmistir. Veriler ulkelerin ilkokul egitim programlarinda yer alan temel beceriler ve genel egitim amaclari ile ilgili bilgiler ulkelerin egitim programlari ve egitim programlari hakkindaki sistemlestirilmis veriler -Dunya Egitim Verileri Yedinci edisyonu gibi (World Data on Education 7th Edition 2010/2011)- kullanilarak elde edilmistir. Elde edilen verilerin analizinde betimsel analiz yontemi kullanilmistir. ...

We're the crazies, chasing rhythms where economists see noise. Agatha Christie nailed it: one coincidence is chance, two is a clue, three is proof. The mainstream's stuck on one coincidence-business cycles are "recurrent but not periodic," a dogma forged by Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell in their 1946 work, *Measuring Business Cycles*. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) guards it like gospel. Cycles churn-booms, busts, no pattern-don't dare call them clockwork. That's taboo. We challenge that taboo with two lenses-Western and Eastern-joined to hunt the *causa causans*, the deeper rhyme behind the churn. West's linear data, East's cyclical cosmologytogether, they stack three clues, Ms. Christie: an 11-12-year pulse since 1854, solar cycles winking at economic turns, and calendars rhyming across hemispheres. History doesn't repeat-it rhymes, as Mark Twain might've grinned. We're not after cause-and-effect; we're blending views to see what's hidden. Call us nuts. We call it vision.

We're the crazies, chasing rhythms where economists see noise. Agatha Christie nailed it: one coincidence is chance, two is a clue, three is proof. The mainstream's stuck on one coincidence-business cycles are "recurrent but not periodic," a dogma forged by Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell in their 1946 work, *Measuring Business Cycles*. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) guards it like gospel. Cycles churn-booms, busts, no pattern-don't dare call them clockwork. That's taboo. We challenge that taboo with two lenses-Western and Eastern-joined to hunt the *causa causans*, the deeper rhyme behind the churn. West's linear data, East's cyclical cosmologytogether, they stack three clues, Ms. Christie: an 11-12-year pulse since 1854, solar cycles winking at economic turns, and calendars rhyming across hemispheres. History doesn't repeat-it rhymes, as Mark Twain might've grinned. We're not after cause-and-effect; we're blending views to see what's hidden. Call us nuts. We call it vision.

This article is about business cycle taboo put in 1946 by Burns&Mitchel that the cycle is recurrent but not periodic however i found a periodicity using western and eastern calendars,moreover comparing NBER and NASA data on US business and solar cycles historically i discovered very close coincedences between occurences of the two.

It is my first article on US business cycle; historical analysis and comparative study with sunspot maximum and minimum.It is the first time innthis study we compared NASA and NBER data and highlited my findings on coincedences between them.

We're the crazies, chasing rhythms where economists see noise. Agatha Christie nailed it: one coincidence is chance, two is a clue, three is proof. The mainstream's stuck on one coincidence-business cycles are "recurrent but not periodic," a dogma forged by Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell in their 1946 work, *Measuring Business Cycles*. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) guards it like gospel. Cycles churn-booms, busts, no pattern-don't dare call them clockwork. That's taboo. We challenge that taboo with two lenses-Western and Eastern-joined to hunt the *causa causans*, the deeper rhyme behind the churn. West's linear data, East's cyclical cosmologytogether, they stack three clues, Ms. Christie: an 11-12-year pulse since 1854, solar cycles winking at economic turns, and calendars rhyming across hemispheres. History doesn't repeat-it rhymes, as Mark Twain might've grinned. We're not after cause-and-effect; we're blending views to see what's hidden. Call us nuts. We call it vision.

Translacja jest w nauce pojęciem wieloznacznym i zazwyczaj oznacza najogólniej rzecz biorąc swego rodzaju przekształcenie, lecz w ekonomii, a zwłaszcza w rachunkowości i finansach definiowana jest jako proces polegający na przeliczeniu wartości z jednej waluty na drugą. Może to być na przykład cena dóbr lub usług, wynagrodzenie lub PKB. Obecnie translacja, zwana też czasami konwersją wartości, oparta jest na rynkowym kursie walutowym, jako relacji pomiędzy dwiema jednostkami pieniężnymi [Pilbeam, 2006]. Taką definicję przyjmuje się również w podręcznikach do zaawansowanej rachunkowości czy finansów [Meigs, Meigs, 1986]. W praktyce kurs walutowy realizowany jest w transakcjach gospodarczych międzynarodowych, w wymianie walut, na przykład w kantorze wymiany walut, gdzie za 3 złote 50 groszy można kupić 1 dolara. Praktyka translacji dotyczy obecnie kilku głównych obszarów. Zauważyć można, że w porównaniach międzynarodowych wynagradzania pracowników często używa się translacji bezpośrednio za pomocą kursu walutowego. Tego typu porównania ukazały się ostatnio w "Gazecie Wyborczej". Autorzy publikacji "Ile zarabia Polak i dlaczego tak mało?" wskazują na zbyt niski poziom wynagrodzeń między innymi w Polsce, w stosunku do niemieckiej płacy [Bojanowski, Popiołek, 2011]. Zdaniem autorów poziom wynagrodzeń wyrówna się w przyszłości. Stosownie do przyjętej koncepcji autorzy doszukują się przyczyn tego stanu rzeczy w wydajności pracy, która jest niższa w Polsce niż w Niemczech. Na bazie teorii produktywności pracy należy zastanowić się, czy taki wniosek jest właściwy i teoretycznie uzasadniony. Jak wskazuje praktyka translacji, kurs walutowy używany bezpośrednio w konwersji cen dóbr i usług również nie przynosi rzetelnych rezultatów. Potwierdzenie tej tezy znaleźć można również w prasie niemieckiej. W gazecie "Deutsche Welle" w artykule pod tytułem "Polska już nie jest zagłębiem niższych cen" wskazuje się na nieopłacalność turystyki zakupowej do Polski [(http)]. Na podstawie zastosowania bieżącego, rynkowego kursu walutowego

Bu calismanin amaci teknoloji kullanimi ve programlama ile ilgili konulari  kapsayan ve bu konuda ogrencileri gelecege hazirlayan Bilisim Teknolojileri ve Yazilim Dersinin, ogretimi surecinde sureklilik saglanmasi, bilgi cagi  olan gunumuzde bilgisayar bilimleri konusunda donanimli ve yeterli mezunlar  verilebilmesi icin ogretim programini guncellemektir. Calisma suresince, ihtiyac  analizi yapilmis, problemler ortaya konulmus, alan yazin taranmis, kuramsal  cerceve olusturulmus, paydas gorusleri alinmis, mevcut yazilim ve kaynaklar  incelenmistir. Bunlara ek olarak ogretmenler ile calistaylar duzenlenerek ogretim  programindaki icerik konusunda tartismalar yapilmis, yontem konusunda ogretmenlerin  beklentileri alinmis ve kazanimlarin ortaklasa yazilmasi saglanmistir.  Son asamada ise yeterlilikler ve degerler acisindan incelemeler yapilmis, olcme  ve degerlendirme yaklasimlari belirlenmis ve uygulama onerileri hazirlanarak  taslak ogretim programi olusturulmustur. Ogretim programin...

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This paper quantitatively evaluates a steady-state inflation rate that is considered desirable from the perspective of social welfare, using a model describing the Japanese economy. Specifically, it begins by setting out points concerning the costs and benefits that accompany inflation. We build a model capable of evaluating the effects, on social welfare, of several of these points: the opportunity cost of holding money, the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, price stickiness and the downward wage rigidity. Building on this, we conduct a stochastic simulation that quantitatively evaluates the social loss with different steady-state inflation rates. We also analyze the range of changes in the steady-state inflation rate that minimizes the social loss when we change the model settings.

Bu çalışmanın amacı öğretmenlerin eğitimde bilgi teknolojileri kullanımı özyeterliliklerini ölçmeye yönelik ölçek geliştirmektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda veriler, İstanbul'da 11 farklı özel eğitim kurumunda görev yapan 97 sınıf öğretmeninden toplanmıştır. Ölçeğin geçerlilik çalışmaları kapsamında, faktör analizi, alt ölçekler arasında ilişki analizi ve madde ayırt edicilik çözümlemeleri yapılmıştır. Güvenilirlik çalışmaları kapsamında ise ölçeğin ve alt ölçeklerin iç tutarlılık katsayıları (Cronbach ) hesaplanmıştır. Geçerlilik ve güvenilirlik çalışmaları sonucunda, 34 maddeden ve 4 alt ölçekten oluşan bir eğitimde bilgi teknolojileri kullanımı öz-yeterlilikleri ölçeği geliştirilmiştir. Ölçeğe, öğretmenler üzerinde geliştirildiği için Eğitimde Bilgi Teknolojileri Kullanımı Öz-yeterlilikleri Öğretmen Değerlendirme Formu (EBTKÖ-ÖDF) adı verilmiştir. Ölçeğin alt boyutları da, temel beceriler öz-yeterliliği, teknoloji tabanlı eğitsel etkinlikler düzenleme öz-yeterliliği, hesap tablosuna dayalı sınıf yönetimi öz-yeterliliği, sistem bilgisi öz-yeterliliği olarak isimlendirilmiştir. EBTKÖ-ÖDF, özellikle sınıf öğretmenleri ile yapılacak çalışmalarda kullanılabilecek bir eğitimde bilgi teknolojileri kullanımı öz yeterlilik ölçeğidir.

Torino, IBL Libri 2023, comprendente uno splendido ed inedito saggio del 1982 che ne anticipa temi e trama). Per questo, a distanza di svariati decenni da che alcuni furono scritti, essi conservano intatta la loro importanza e confermano pienamente la nuova considerazione che giustamente si è imposta di Hayek. CARL MENGER, Errori e miserie dello storicismo, a cura e con un Saggio introduttivo di Raimondo Cubeddu e Marco Menon, IBL, Torino, 2023, pp. xi-183, € 20,00. Il confronto sul metodo delle scienze sociali, il Methodenstreit, che coinvolse Carl Menger (1840-1921) e la Scuola storica tedesca dell'economia, per quanto distante ormai più d'un secolo dalla nostra contemporaneità, non ha perso vitalità e importanza. Si tratta di un dibattito acceso che apparentemente è condotto sul solo terreno dei problemi metodologici, ma a cui, in realtà, soggiace una componente 'politica' che tutt'ora difficilmente può essere ignorata nelle discussioni sul metodo delle scienze sociali. Non solo come presupposto, ma anche come esito, la 'politica' si ascrive pienamente tra i termini che caratterizzano il Methodenstreit. Errori e miserie dello storicismo presenta, tramite un'accurata selezione di testi, le argomentazioni dei due principali protagonisti del confronto: Menger e il massimo rappresentante della Scuola storica tedesca di economia -per lo meno nella fase storica in cui il dibattito si svolge -Gustav von Schmoller . Il problema attorno al quale ruotano entrambi, e che prende il via dalle Untersuchungen mengeriane del 1883, concerne il ruolo che la storia deve avere all'interno della scienza e della politica economica; più precipuamente, ciò che Menger ha avuto modo di mettere in luce è l'unilateralità dello storicismo imperante tra gli studiosi della Scuola storica che non ha permesso grandi avanzamenti nella teoria economica, relegandola invece a una sorta di collezione di casi in continuo aggiornamento che non permettono la formulazione di leggi generali in grado di rendere veramente conto dei fenomeni economici. La criticità segnalata da Menger ha a che fare con l'atteggiamento attendista e inutilmente cauto di questi studiosi, presi da una sorta di "vertigine descrittiva" (p. 140) incapace di volgere lo sguardo oltre il 'particolare' presentato dalla ricerca storica. Per Menger, l'errore di questa concezione sta nell'impossibilità (o nel rifiuto) di considerare i fenomeni economici come fatti composti da molteplici moventi individuali, non orientati in senso teleologico e soprattutto non esauribili nella considerazione di una volontà collettiva. Lo Stato, la società, la classe, il popolo non sono entità in grado agire 'economicamente', nello stesso senso delle economie individuali o private, ma sono il risultato inintenzionale di azioni individuali intenzionali (p. 25). Non esistono leggi di sviluppo storico scopribili da un attento (e infinito) esame delle fonti, dei dati e delle osservazioni storiche in grado di spiegare la 'natura' dei fenomeni economici; questi muovono tutti da moventi individuali che si compongono senza un disegno in grado di prevedere e dunque di evitare tutte le conseguenze inintenzionali di tale aggregazione. Ecco dunque che lo storicismo, nel suo tentativo di cogliere delle leggi universali di sviluppo che possano fungere

The chances for fiscal and monetary influence on the business cycle of Bulgaria under a currency board arrangement have been analyzed. The determinants of Bulgaria’s business cycle phase and output gap from the first quarter of 2000 till the second quarter of 2017 have been identified. The effects of minimum reserve requirements, fiscal balance, government revenue, government expenditure and government debt on the business cycle phase and the output gap have been studied. Two research methods have been employed – logistic regression and ordinary least squares regression of times series data. The study results imply that all mentioned variables except for government debt have a statistically significant impact on the output gap. The business cycle phase is significantly affected by all mentioned variables with the exception of government expenditure.

plus other regional and macroeconomic Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. variables. Predictive accuracy is analyzed using in-sample model simulations. Results Finance, indicate that narrowing yield spreads, real peso appreciation, and oil price declines are

Глубокое понимание передовой экономической теории, талант преподавателя в сочетании с огромной трудоспособностью позволили Владимиру Железнову уже в 30 лет подготовить к изданию главный труд своей жизни «Очерки политической экономии». Издательский успех «Очерков»-восемь изданий в дореволюционной России, издание 1918 г. в Германии-убедительно свидетельствует о том, что ему удалось дать содержательный ответ на интеллектуальный запрос поворотной исторической эпохи и уже тем самым занять достойное место в истории экономической мысли России. В. Железнов остается первым российским ученым, раскрывшим мировому сообществу экономистов широкую, теоретически насыщенную панораму развития экономической мысли в России в ее особенно плодотворный период (конец XIX-XX в.). Ключевые слова: экономическая теория, история экономической мысли, политическая экономия. JEL: B1, B31.

Lo stato di cattiva salute in cui si trova la conoscenza della storia del pensiero economico è stato posto nuovamente all’attenzione della comunità degli economisti dopo la pubblicazione, alla fine di gennaio, su Il Sole 24 Ore di un appello lanciato da Piero Barucci, già professore presso l’Università di Firenze e Ministro del Tesoro nei governi Amato I e Ciampi. Non si tratta di una boutade. All’appello – che punta a salvare i percorsi dottorali in storia dell’economia – hanno aderito più di duecentocinquanta accademici e tra i primi firmatari vi sono civil servant del calibro di Giuliano Amato, Pierluigi Ciocca, Claudio De Vincenti, Elsa Fornero e Giorgio La Malfa.

L’iniziativa riflette una pericolosa tendenza culturale che segna la nostra epoca secondo la quale gli economisti dovrebbero specializzarsi solo sulle ultime linee di ricerca che caratterizzerebbero la disciplina intesa come un insieme di saperi volto a risolvere il problema della migliore allocazione delle risorse in un contesto di scarsità. L’economics non dovrebbe dunque più essere concepita come scienza del capitalismo, scienza di un particolare sistema economico sociale caratterizzato da possibili conflitti fra punti di vista diversi.

Una delle conseguenze di questa tendenza culturale si intravede in una tesi sostenuta il 13 gennaio all’interno di un interessante articolo di Phillip W. Magness dell’American Institute for Economic Research. Il titolo è emblematico: No, Marx Was Not an Important Economist.

This research explores the crucial role of risk management in enhancing project success amid prevalent project failures linked to inadequate risk practices. In today’s complex project environments, organizations face uncertainties that can derail objectives and hinder performance. Despite a focus on effective project management methodologies, many projects still fall short of meeting their goals due to overlooked risks and insufficient assessment processes. This study aims to identify common risks affecting project success across sectors and evaluate current risk management practices among project managers. By employing both quantitative and qualitative methods, this study highlights significant gaps in existing practices and proposes a comprehensive framework for integrating risk management throughout the project lifecycle. The research findings provide actionable insights and practical recommendations to improve project outcomes and advance the field of project management by enhancing understanding of effective risk management strategies.

This paper investigates whether or not there is co-waved merger and acquisition (Mactivity in 26 OECD countries. We apply the Markov Switching model to panel data (MSP hereafter), an approach which has not previously been attempted. Two distinct regimes are recognized in emerge from MAdata: the wave merger regime and normal merger regime. Our MSP captures the co-wave pattern of the sample countries and has a much better fit than either the univariate Markov Switching model or the conventional linear panel model.