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All Journal Quantitative Economics and Management Studies ARRUS Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities
Rusli Rusli
Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Makassar, 90223, Indonesia
Religion Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Social Sciences

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Implementation of Exponential Smoothing in Forecasting the Export Value Price of Oil and Gas in Indonesia Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Abdul Rahman; Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R.; Rusli Rusli; Nachnoer Arss; Alok Kumar Panday
Quantitative Economics and Management Studies Vol. 4 No. 4 (2023)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.qems1022

Abstract

This study aims to predict the value of oil and gas export prices in Indonesia using exponential smoothing. Exponential smoothing was applied because the data analysis revealed that the data consisted of trends and seasonal components. This study uses secondary data obtained from the website of the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Indonesia, covering the value of oil and gas exports in Indonesia every month from January 2010 to March 2022. The study obtained the exponential smoothing parameters, including α = 0.5153984, β = 0.06410119, and g = 0.7137603, with a seasonal length of L = 12. The forecast for the next five periods in millions of US$: April 2022 (1111.765), May 2022 (1250.465), June 2022 (1405.016), July 2022 (1447.510), and August 2022 (1452.984).
Forecasting the Export Value of Oil and Gas in Indonesia using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Abdul Rahman; Parkhimenko Vladimir Anatolievich; Rusli Rusli; Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R.
Quantitative Economics and Management Studies Vol. 4 No. 5 (2023)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.daengku1040

Abstract

This study aims to utilize the ARIMA method to predict the value of Indonesia's oil and gas exports. As quantitative research, it employs secondary data sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Indonesia's website. The data spans January 2010 to March 2022 and are presented on a monthly basis. Through the results and discussion, three ARIMA models were established, namely ARIMA (1,1,0), ARIMA (0,1,1), and ARIMA (1,1,1). Among these models, the ARIMA (0,1,1) model with an AIC value of 2047.65 was found to be the most suitable for forecasting Indonesia's oil and gas exports. The forecasted values for the next five periods were 1254.124 (April 2022), 1309.678 (May 2022), 1289.236 (June 2022), 1296.758 (July 2022), and 1293.990 (August 2022).
The Development of Web-Based E-Modules in Class XI Marching Materials on SMA Negeri 11 Pinrang Rusli Rusli; Ahmad Talib; Hastuty Musa; Abdul Rahman; Nur Ikhsan Ismail
ARRUS Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Vol. 3 No. 5 (2023)
Publisher : PT ARRUS Intelektual Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/soshum2163

Abstract

This study aimed to develop and produce valid, practical, and effective web-based e-module products to help students understand the sequencing material for the Eleventh Grade at Senior High School 11 Pinrang. This research was conducted at Senior High School 11 Pinrang. The research method refers to Thiagarajan 4D development model, which consists of 3 stages: define, design, develop, and disseminate. The development research began with the defining stage, which consisted of defining a problem based on students, assignments, materials, and learning objectives. The design stages include compiling, designing, and determining formats. The development stage involves validation of material and media experts, followed by testing. Firthermore, the dissemination stage was limited to Senior High School 11 Pinrang in different classes. Research instruments used in this study included validation sheets by material experts and media experts to measure validity, student response questionnaires to measure practicality, and learning achievement test questions to measure effectiveness. The trial was performed on class XI MIPA 2 students at Senior High School 11 Pinrang. The results showed that the web-based e-module on class XI lineup material that was developed was valid with a score of 3.72 in terms of material and a score of 3.70 in terms of media which was included in valid and unrevised criteria, practically by obtaining a very positive response from students and teacher responses with a score of 3.56 for student responses and a score of 3.38 for teacher responses, and effective based on student learning outcomes tests with an effectiveness score on the percentage of completeness of the trial subjects of 88.46%.
Co-Authors Ahmad Talib Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Alok Kumar Panday Hastuty Musa Nachnoer Arss Nur Ikhsan Ismail Parkhimenko Vladimir Anatolievich Rahman, Abdul Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R.