Predictions for the 2024 elections in Pakistan

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, 2025

The political climate of Punjab is defined by a four-way race, rendering this election significantly unanticipated and fascinating. This complicated contest is not only about seat acquisition but also about acting as an indicator of the state's diverse political perspectives and desired outcomes. While these Lok Sabha elections led to the decline of the Shiromani Akali Dal, which dealt a very deep blow to the political career of the Shiromani Akali Dal, at the same time, the Panthic ideology, or radical thinking, got an opportunity to make a comeback in Punjab after a long decade. However, Congress, by remaining in opposition in the Punjab Vidhan Sabha, made a comeback itself in Parliament by winning seven seats. AAP which emerged as the ruling party in Punjab during the previous Vidhan Sabha election, had to face a political crisis in these elections. The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) is strategically focusing on expanding its influence in Punjab, an area where it has historically had limited influence. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi, the party has been emphasizing the themes of national security, economic development, and benefits of central government schemes to resonate with the local people and increase its political hold in the state. Objectives of this paper 1. To analyse the Punjab Lok Sabha Election 2024. 2. To examine the key dominated issues in the Punjab Lok Sabha Election 2024. 3. To evaluate the electoral performance of main political parties in the Punjab Lok Sabha Election 2024. Methodology: This research paper employs the historical-analytical method due to its reliance on political facts. This paper is based on numerous secondary sources, including books, articles, and journals. Additionally, primary data has been utilized, including the Statistical Report of the Election Commission of India and the Statistical Report by the Punjab Chief Electoral Officer, among others.

This study attempts to analyze Pakistan People's party's electoral politics and campaigning with special reference to General Election 2008 in the province of the Punjab. This election has been significant in the electoral history of Pakistan because PPP showed signs of revival in the province after some time. This election in Pakistan was also significant because it demonstrated the continuity of electoral process which was restarted in 1988 and helped strengthen the democracy in the country. The charter of Democracy had provided a strong platform for the main stream parties to fight against dictatorship and even after the sudden death of Benazir Bhutto that agreement continued and both parties made seat adjustments during the election campaign. This policy of seat adjustment helped PMLN to win more seats than PPP and thus PPP lost initiative in the Punjab though remained successful at the Centre. Therefore, this paper tries to understand the electoral politics in Punjab and the role of PPP in the general election of 2008 in the province of the Punjab. The underlying hypothesis of this paper is that PPP failed to capitalize the political vacuum created by the PMLN leaders because of their exile from Pakistan. The study also conducted to investigate the place and position of the Pakistan People's Party in the political fabric of the province of the Punjab which had been under question for a long time because of the popularity of the Pakistan Muslim League and the unique leadership of Nawaz Sharif. The Paper also to find out that the People party though had not been in a position to form the Government at the provincial level since 1977 but had been one of the main popular parties in the province. Therefore, the election campaign and results are obvious proof that PPPP has been one of the main political parties in the Province and was in a position to form a coalition government which it preferred to form with the PML (N) because both these parties had concluded a Charter of Democracy in 2007 and had been cooperating with each other on various issues.

International Studies, 2018

Pakistan's general elections held in July 2018 led to the smooth transition of power for the second time from one elected government to another. However, the elections were marred by serious allegations of manipulation of the electoral process by the military. The results were on predicted lines-a hung assembly in which the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) emerged with the highest seats. While Imran Khan's political journey has been a remarkable one, he inherits a country, which has become difficult to govern and faces a very difficult economic situation. Pakistan's second successful democratic transition shows clear signs of the emergence of a political system in which the military may just be happy with a form of guided democracy-a formal democratic structure maintained and legitimized by elections. Even if Imran Khan has come to power as a result of the manipulation by the military establishment, he cannot be taken for granted in the civil-military equation.

PSSR, 2022

The electoral process is an integral part of a democratic system. It is the legitimate and constitutional way of coming into power and governing the state. Consistency in the process of elections and a transparent electoral process strengthens the overall political development in the state. The electoral system of Pakistan encompasses multiple factors including identity, party affiliation, local grouping, and provincial-based issues. Punjab has a vital role in the overall political dynamics of Pakistan. In this context, this paper entails a quantitative and qualitative study of the main electoral trends of Punjab. It is being observed that political party-based association, local groupings, factors of caste, biradari, ideology, and religious identities are the main contributing factors in defining the voting behavior and constituency trend in Punjab.

Strategic Analysis, 2024

The February 2024 elections in Pakistan threw up a hung parliament, with Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) emerging as the single largest party. The elections were a testament to the sustained political re-engineering by the powerful deep state of Pakistan to ensure a pliable civilian government amenable to its diktats. However, the results were contrary to the expectations of the powerful establishment, which wanted to diminish Imran Khan’s role in Pakistani politics and took all possible measures, ranging from disqualifying him from contesting elections to disallowing his party to use the symbol it was assigned earlier. In the aftermath of the elections, Imran’s party was kept out of power, and a coalition consisting of parties opposed to him was stitched together to lead the government. This article seeks to analyse the state of Pakistani politics both during and after the elections, and identify the challenges Pakistan is going to face in the days to come.

Pakistan AD2000, 1989

This paper was written as part of an exercise in Future Forecasting I thought it may interest some, who are interested in understanding political transformations in Pakistan : Predicting the fu tu re dire ctio n o f a political system is a hazardous task. However, given some understanding o f historical experience, socioeconomic conditions, changes in the international environm ent and p o licy choices exercised by the decision making elites o f a state, one can forecast (w ith some c re d ib ility) the like ly d ire ctio n o f its p olitica l developm ent.

IJSES, 2024

This paper aims to highlight the situation of democracy in Pakistan throughout the years, beginning from its independence. It discusses the role religion has played in its formation and it the years that followed after that. This significant role paved way for the politicians of Pakistan to further use religion as a tool of manipulation in order to gain victory in elections. Moreover, the paper covers the democratic challenges that Pakistan has gone through and the role of Pakistani military in contributing to those challenges. It has been established in this paper that since Pakistan has had such limited opportunities to have a democratic government, thus even today it is facing challenges in maintaining a democratic nature. The general elections of 2024 – and the events that led to it – are a perfect example of those challenges. The delay in the election results and a victory that appeared to be rather forced made the democratic nature of Pakistan seem even more questionable.

The election concluded with victory of cricketer turned-politician Imran Khan and his idea of ameliorating present failing state into ‘Naya Pakistan’ amidst anticipated political instability due to envisioned reforms, possibility of collapse of new government, far-reaching challenges for the new leadership to achieve and fear of a puppet government in garb of democracy with the strings attached with the Pakistan military, as history have tendency to repeat itself. In words of Muhammad Iqbal, “Nations are born in the hearts of poets, they prosper and die in the hands of politicians.”Will Pakistan prosper or perish in the hands of new leadership is yet to stand the litmus test of time?