Sustainability of geothermal development strategy using a numerical reservoir modeling: A case study of Tompaso geothermal field
Geothermics, 2021
Abstract Numerical reservoir simulation is a fundamental instrument to assess geothermal energy d... more Abstract Numerical reservoir simulation is a fundamental instrument to assess geothermal energy development strategy. This study aimed to optimize geothermal project development by integrating numerical modeling, reserve estimation, and geothermal power plant thermodynamics. Therefore, a case study for a numerical reservoir model was built based on the published data of the Tompaso field in North Sulawesi, Indonesia. The Tompaso field model was built in the TOUGH2 simulator, and the output was validated using observed data of 10 wells. The deviation of temperature and pressure models against the observed data ranged from 4.1 to 20.2 °C and 1.2–18 bar, respectively, so that the model is believed to reach the natural state condition. The natural state model was the basis for calculating the proven reserve using the dynamic deliverability method and approach of experimental design Box-Behnken 2nd order. A proxy equation generated by 27 simulations was combined with Monte Carlo simulations yielding a proven reserve of 62.2 MWe (P50) for the Tompaso field. Two development scenarios, full-scale and stepwise, were selected and simulated to determine the requirement of production, reinjection, and make-up wells for each strategy. It was found that using a stepwise development strategy can reduce the required amount of reinjection and make-up wells.
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2020
Feasibility of developing a geothermal project depends on the financial return generated from the... more Feasibility of developing a geothermal project depends on the financial return generated from the investment. One of the strategies to achieve optimum return is formulating a financial model with a high level of confidence. Technical input parameters in the financial model are determined by the amount of available geothermal reserve in the form of a field development scenario. The best method for predicting geothermal reserve is a numerical simulation. The objective of this study is to determine the electricity tariff to generate 30 MW, 60 MW, and 110 MW which meet the 50% of the Rate of Return value will be equal or not exceed 16% (P50) for a specific geothermal field with a probabilistic approach. This study started with determining the technical input parameters: the number of production wells; makeup wells; and injection wells from each development scenarios based on numerical simulation result that has been studied by another researcher. The electricity tariff that meets the P...
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2020
The right of geothermal field concession in Indonesia is obtained by tender as per Law No. 21/201... more The right of geothermal field concession in Indonesia is obtained by tender as per Law No. 21/2014 Article 18. In the submitted proposal, the developer candidates shall mention the plan of field development strategy, while available data is limited due to a preliminary survey or preliminary survey and exploration were just performed. Then the developer candidates must be able to formulate the financial condition of the project so that the field utilization not only sustains but also produces appropriate profits. This paper discussed some regulations which are related to the economics of geothermal development project in Indonesia and a simple example of financial modelling with a probabilistic approach using Microsoft Excel Monte Carlo simulation and analysis tool. The input data were some technical assumptions such as installed capacity, steam fraction, steam specific consumption (SSC), well’s capacity, well’s success ratio, and financial assumptions such as well’s price, power pla...
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Papers by Ade Lesmana