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October 13, 2016
Likely Very Close Finish in Iowa
Results from a survey of Iowa 3
rd
District voters To:
Interested Parties
From:
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
Three weeks from Election Day, the Third District congressional race seems headed for a very competitive finish. Jim Mowrer and David Young are statistically knotted in the trial heat.
Voters’ appreciation for their new Congressman is very mixed.
And Young also shares the ticket with a running mate who is flat-out dying in Iowa. The following memorandum outlines key findings from a survey of
400 likely voters in Iowa’s
Third District that carries a margin of error of +/- 4.9 points at a 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Key Findings
Trial heat is very close.
David Young currently edges Jim Mowrer 49 to 46 percent, well within the margin of error in this survey and leaving Young under 50 percent, a precarious place for an incumbent in the last month of an election.
Figure 1:
Trial heat
DCCC IA-03 Tracking:
Key Findings and Strategic Recommendations
2016 All Rights Reserved Greenberg Quinlan Rosner October, 2016 2
Trump is a problem for Young
. As is the case in many districts across the country, Donald Trump weighs down the ticket. He currently trails Hillary Clinton 36 to 47 percent in a four-way trial heat for Congress and carries a 62 percent negative favorability score.
Young’s profile is
also mixed
. Only 41 percent of voters describe their feelings toward David Young in favorable terms; just as many (39 percent) react unfavorably. He has had two years and nearly two full campaigns to make his case to Iowa
’s
Third District voters and yet still has something to prove.
Conclusion
This one will likely go down to the wire, but with the race virtually tied and the top of the Republican ticket imploding, Democrats should like their chances.