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M E M O R A N D U M To: Interested Parties From: Normington, Petts and Associates Date: October 12, 2016
The following is a summary of findings from a telephone survey conducted among 400 registered voters in Iowa’s First Congressional District who are likely to vote in the November 2016 general election. Interviews were conducted October 10-11, 2016. The sampling error for this survey is ±4.9%.
The race for IA-01 is competitive.
Among all voters, Democratic challenger Monica Vernon is just one point behind incumbent Republican Congressman Rod Blum, 44%-45%.
Figure I: IA-01 Vote for U.S. Congress – Vernon vs. Blum
Blum is below 50% on every key measure for an incumbent.
Blum’s share of the vote (45%), his favorable rating (37% favorable and 29% unfavorable) and his job rating (45% positive and 34% negative) are all below 50%. Incumbents who win reelection are typically above 50% on at least one of these measures. Blum is well below 50% on all of them.
Vernon has room to grow among Democrats.
Vernon is capturing 83% of the vote among Democrats, 9 point below what Clinton is obtaining at the top of the ticket.
Undecided voters are likely to support Vernon.
Of the 11% of voters who remain undecided, over a quarter (26%) are Democrats and 65% are Independents. These undecided voters are supporting Clinton for president, 47%-26%.
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