After sixteen years as the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko has had one hell of a run, even earning the oft-cited title as “Europe’s Last Dictator” (though the Europeans shouldn’t sell themselves so short … there’s plenty of dictators in waiting!).  Nevertheless, all bad things must come to an end, and the rumors we are often hearing from analysts is that he is on the outs with the Kremlin, and that it’s just a matter of time before he gets punted.

That would, in part, explain some of Lukashenko’s erratic and defiant behavior, most recently exemplified by the decision this week to boycott an important meeting of the “customs union” theoretically being proposed between Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia – the unexpected (and embarrassing, according to some) alternative to the World Trade Organization.  It’s certainly not the first time that Lukashenko has snubbed Moscow as a way to create distance – back in April he voiced criticism and boycotted another CSTO summit, which put a dent in Russia’s reputation to organize and lead new regional alliances.  These disputes have been growing in intensity for some time.